工业硅&多晶硅周报 2026/01/10：工业硅震荡调整；多晶硅风险担忧下市场情绪宣泄，短期盘整运行-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of industrial silicon is fluctuating and adjusting. In the short - term, market sentiment is volatile, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon may be weak, and the organic silicon demand is relatively stable in the short - term. The polysilicon market is affected by legal risk concerns and market sentiment, with futures prices dropping and spot - price fluctuations. The market is waiting for the implementation of policies and the actual situation of transactions [16][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly to 2.54 tons. The DMC production was 44,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [14]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 5.123 million tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, market inventory increased by 1,000 tons, and registered warrant inventory increased by 3,300 tons [14]. - Price: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday. The spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The SMM - statistical average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 55 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The average price of N - type dense material was 54.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.75 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,620 yuan/ton from before the holiday [15][23][26]. - Cost: The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, 9,720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,966.67 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The production cost of polysilicon was 42,795.37 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 16,415.16 yuan/ton [15][17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday. The spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from before the holiday [23]. - Polysilicon: As of January 9, 2026, the SMM - statistical average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 55 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The average price of N - type dense material was 54.25 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.75 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,620 yuan/ton from before the holiday [26]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total Output: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week. In December 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 355,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December decreased by 652,300 tons or 13.86% year - on - year [31]. - Output in Main Production Areas: The electricity price and silica price in main production areas remained unchanged week - on - week. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,487.50 yuan/ton, 9,720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 9,775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,966.67 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [43][46]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 5.123 million tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, market inventory increased by 1,000 tons, and registered warrant inventory increased by 3,300 tons [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - Output: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 25,400 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week. In December, the output was 115,500 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 1.3052 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 254,600 tons [54]. - Operating Rate and Scheduled Production: The operating rate of polysilicon in December was 42.23%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points from the previous month. The expected output in January was 107,800 tons, continuing to decline [57]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 311,800 tons, and the SMM - statistical inventory was 302,000 tons [60]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost of polysilicon was 42,795.37 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 16,415.16 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon Wafer: The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.52 GW, remaining stable. In December, the output was 43.9 GW, a decrease of 10.47 GW from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 647.09 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46%. The inventory was 26.23 GW, a slight increase. The predicted output in January was 45.2 GW, remaining basically unchanged [66][69]. - Battery Cell: In December, the output of battery cells was 46.76 GW, a decrease of 8.85 GW from the previous month. The operating rate was 47.11%, a decrease of 8.93 percentage points from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 669.48 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%. The inventory was 8.92 GW, remaining unchanged. The expected output in January was 39.36 GW, a significant decrease [75][78]. - Module: In December, the output of modules was 38.7 GW, a decrease of 8.2 GW from the previous month. The operating rate was 37.57%, a decrease of 8.14 percentage points from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 563.2 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The inventory was 30 GW, a slight decrease. The expected output in January was 32.47 GW, a decrease from December [83][86]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - Output: As of January 9, 2026, the DMC output was 44,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week. In December, the output was 204,800 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous month. The cumulative output from January to December was 2.477 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [93]. - Price and Profit: The average price of organic silicon was 13,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The DMC gross profit was 1,609.38 yuan/ton [96]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the DMC inventory was 44,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week [99]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum Alloy: As of January 9, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,420 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 23,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,210 yuan/ton. From January to November, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.895 million tons or 19.88%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 58% [105][108]. - Exports: From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 651,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,400 tons or 1.95% [111].