铅周报：增仓上行，多空矛盾加大-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, with increased contradictions between macro funds and industrial seat funds. The volatility of Shanghai lead has significantly increased. In the double - wide cycle, the relatively strong macro sentiment may push the lead price to have short - term pulses and deviate from the fundamental oscillation range. It is expected that the lead price will mainly oscillate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector [11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.14% at 17,381 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 113,800 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S rose 9 to 2,040 US dollars/ton with a total position of 177,400 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,175 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,025 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 150 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 20,200 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from January 5. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 16,200 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 226,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 64,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.39 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 115.5 US dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 341.51 yuan/ton [11] - Industrial Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 51,000 tons, the factory inventory was 484,000 tons, equivalent to 33.8 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.60%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 43,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 66.59% [11] 3.2. Primary Supply - Imports: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15] - Domestic Production: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In November 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 138,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 21.11% and a month - on - month change of 16.45%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,441,700 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.85% [17] - Total Supply: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 274,900 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.09% and a month - on - month change of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,973,600 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.62%. In October 2025, overseas lead ore production was 256,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 3.39% and a month - on - month change of 6.60%. From January to October, the total overseas lead ore production was 2,407,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.35% [19] - Inventory and Processing Fees: The port inventory of lead concentrates at the primary end was 51,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 484,000 tons, equivalent to 33.8 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - Smelting Start - up Rate and Production: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.60%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26] 3.3. Recycled Supply - Raw Materials and Weekly Production: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 43,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33] - Imports and Total Supply: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. The total domestic lead ingot supply in November was 723,900 tons, with a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35] 3.4. Demand Analysis - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 66.59%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38] - Battery Exports: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, with a year - on - year change of - 22.0% and a month - on - month change of - 5.23%. From January to November, the total net export of lead - containing batteries was 19,680,580 units, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 10.47% [41] - Inventory Days: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. The use of lead in the automobile sector is mainly for automobile starting batteries. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high demand for replacement of starting batteries support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base - station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country have led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 3.5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Domestic Supply - Demand Balance: In November 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - Overseas Supply - Demand Balance: In October 2025, the supply - demand difference of overseas refined lead was a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative supply - demand difference of overseas refined lead was a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 3.6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 20,200 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from January 5. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 16,200 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton [69] - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 226,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 64,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.39 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 115.5 US dollars/ton [71] - Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.222, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 341.51 yuan/ton [74] - Position Analysis: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was relatively high. The LME lead investment fund seats became net - long, and the net - short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds increased [77]