鸡蛋周报：反弹抛空-20260110

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the price increase of eggs fell short of expectations, the late Spring Festival still led to a continued stockpiling sentiment, driving the near - month contracts on the futures market to be strong. However, the large supply base remained, and the young chicken age made it easy for farmers to delay culling after price increases, thus slowing down the capacity reduction. Considering the expected price drop of the spot market after the Spring Festival, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the near - month contracts. For the far - month contracts, although there is a long - term positive expectation, the realization path is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, domestic egg prices trended stronger. There were bullish expectations in the pre - festival market. After prices fell to a low level, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers' enthusiasm for purchasing low - priced goods increased, accelerating market circulation. However, after the price increase, the delay in culling old chickens intensified, and the proportion of large eggs significantly rebounded. Next week, egg prices may first decline slightly and then rise slightly. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.2 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, Guantao increased by 0.16 yuan to 2.96 yuan per catty, Huilongguan in the sales area increased by 0.21 yuan to 3.3 yuan per catty, and Dongguan increased by 0.2 yuan to 3.11 yuan per catty [11][20] - Replenishment and Culling: Affected by the weak egg prices and continuous farming losses, the market's enthusiasm for replenishment remained sluggish. Due to seasonal factors, the replenishment volume in December increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The egg price rebounded weakly, and farming losses expanded. The previous positive sentiment of culling chickens continued, and the price of old chickens hit a multi - year low year - on - year. Recently, due to the pre - festival stockpiling sentiment, the reluctance to sell has intensified, and the average age of chickens remained at 484 days, still far from excessive culling [11][33] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than the previous value and slightly lower than expected, mainly because the number of newly - started laying hens gradually decreased and the number of culled chickens was higher than expected. However, the absolute quantity was still large, a decrease of 80 million compared with November and a 5% increase compared with 1.28 billion in December last year. Based on the previous replenishment volume, considering normal culling, it is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, further dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decline of 4.3%. The relative supply will gradually decrease, but the absolute supply will still be relatively high [11][38] - Demand Side: As the Spring Festival approaches, food companies are stocking up for the festival, and terminal demand is gradually recovering. The overall trend of the demand side is positive, and the demand for eggs may first decrease and then increase [11][46] - Trading Strategy: For the near - month contracts, short on rebounds. For the far - month contracts, pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation. Specifically, for the unilateral strategy, short the 03 - 06 contracts on rallies, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 1.5 months, and the core driving logic being inventory, spot prices, and seasonality. The recommended rating is two - star, and it was first proposed on January 9th. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [11][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: The domestic egg price trended stronger last week. After falling to a low level, the market circulation accelerated. But after the price increase, the delay in culling old chickens intensified, and the proportion of large eggs increased. The overall supply was sufficient, with only a shortage of small - sized eggs. Next week, prices may first decline slightly and then rise slightly [20] - Basis and Spread: The basis is low, and the futures market still has upward pressure. The monthly spread is mainly oscillating [23] - Culled Chicken Price: Although the egg price rebounded from a low level, the farming was still in a loss state. The sentiment of culling chickens remained positive, and both the absolute price of culled chickens and the spread between culled chickens and white chickens hit new lows [26] 3.3 Supply Side - Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment: Affected by weak egg prices and continuous losses, the enthusiasm for replenishment remained low. In December, the replenishment volume increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [33] - Culled Chicken Sales: The egg price rebounded weakly, and losses expanded. The previous positive sentiment of culling chickens continued, and the price of old chickens hit a multi - year low. Recently, due to pre - festival stockpiling, the reluctance to sell has intensified, and the average age of chickens remained at 484 days, still far from excessive culling [36] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than the previous value and slightly lower than expected. It is expected to peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decline of 4.3%, but the absolute supply will still be relatively high [38][41] 3.4 Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, food companies are stocking up, and terminal demand is gradually recovering. The overall demand trend is positive, and the demand for eggs may first decrease and then increase [46] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has declined month - on - month. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51] 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]