Report 1: Glass Weekly Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Report's Core View Recently, with multiple production lines undergoing cold repairs, the daily melting volume of glass has dropped to a multi - year low (15.01 tons), and the support from rising fuel costs has boosted market sentiment and driven up prices. On the spot side, influenced by the positive futures market, many glass manufacturers have announced price hikes, and dealers' purchasing sentiment is decent. However, due to the traditional off - season, terminal orders are growing sluggishly, and the high overall industry inventory continues to limit the upside potential of prices. The market should focus on the progress of high - inventory digestion and actual spot trading performance. Given the large short - term fluctuations, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14]. Summary According to Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57 yuan/ton; the basis was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [13][19]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [13][29][32]. - Supply: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2; the operating rate was 71.95% [13][37]. - Demand: According to WIND data, from January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; in November, the sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. According to CAAM data, in November, the production and sales of automobiles were 353.16/342.90 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.76%/3.40%; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5551.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 134.80 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 261.36 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 95.28 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1020 yuan/ton, the closing price of the glass main contract was 1144 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 124 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton [19]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 120 yuan/ton (+18), the 05 - 09 spread was - 90 yuan/ton (+13), the 09 - 01 spread was 210 yuan/ton (- 31), and the open interest reached 154.85 million lots [22]. 3. Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [29][32]. 4. Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2; the operating rate was 71.95% [37]. - Glass Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, unchanged from the previous week. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 78701.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; in November, the sales area of commercial housing was 6719.74 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the production and sales of automobiles were 353.16/342.90 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.76%/3.40%; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3123.10/3112.70 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 5. Inventory As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5551.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 134.80 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 261.36 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 95.28 million heavy boxes [51]. Report 2: Soda Ash Weekly Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Report's Core View Last week, the overall supply of soda ash was stable, the load of some plants increased slightly, and the industry's operating rate rebounded. Meanwhile, the second - phase project of Alashan was officially put into production, and the market supply pressure continued. In terms of demand, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass and float glass showed a downward trend, the rigid demand for heavy soda ash decreased accordingly, downstream users generally adopted a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and most purchases were for low - price rigid needs, resulting in a dull overall trading atmosphere. Enterprise inventories continued to accumulate, and the pressure to sell goods increased significantly. Some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to promote sales. Although the price of local heavy soda ash increased slightly driven by the futures market in the later part of the week, the market still lacked substantial positive support, and the overall weak pattern remained unchanged [62][63]. Summary According to Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1228 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan/ton [62][68]. - Cost and Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 145.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.55 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [62][79][82]. - Supply: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 75.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.39%. The output of heavy soda ash was 40.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons; the output of light soda ash was 34.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 tons [62][90][93]. - Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons, the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2, and the operating rate was 71.95%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [62][96]. - Inventory: As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44 tons; the available inventory days were 13.04 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.36 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 83.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.43 tons [62][101][104]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of January 9, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1228 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 47 yuan/ton [68]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 85 yuan/ton (- 1), the 05 - 09 spread was - 68 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 153 yuan/ton (+6), and the open interest reached 154.85 million lots [71]. 3. Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 145.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.55 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton [79]. - Raw Material Cost: As of January 9, 2026, the price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2315 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [82][85]. 4. Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 75.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.39%. The output of heavy soda ash was 40.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 tons; the output of light soda ash was 34.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.30 tons [90][93]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of January 9, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.92 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.413 tons, the number of operating production lines was 212, a week - on - week decrease of 2, and the operating rate was 71.95%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 289 tons [96]. 5. Inventory As of January 9, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44 tons; the available inventory days were 13.04 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.36 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 83.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.43 tons [101][104]
玻璃周报：供应低位运行，拿货情绪有所提振-20260110
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-10 13:45