转债周度跟踪：春躁启动，转债估值创17年以来新高-20260110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the year, the equity market had a good start. Coupled with a decline in call risk and an increase in unexpected non - call cases, convertible bonds (CBs) simultaneously boosted their valuations. This week, CBs outperformed their underlying stocks, with high - price and long - duration CBs leading the gains. The 100 - yuan premium rate and the median CB price reached new highs since 2017. In the future, considering the high - expected profit - loss ratio of the asset side and the trading - oriented mindset of the liability side, the volatility of the CB market will increase, and the risk of "missing out" is higher. Therefore, investment strategies should de - emphasize timing and abandon position differences [5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The equity market had a good start at the beginning of the year. With reduced call risk and more unexpected non - call cases, CBs' valuations were boosted. This week, CBs outperformed underlying stocks, and high - price and long - duration CBs led the rise. The 100 - yuan premium rate and the median CB price reached new highs since 2017. In the future, the CB market's volatility will increase, and the "missing out" risk is higher. Investment strategies should de - emphasize position timing [5][6]. 2. CB Valuations - This week, the market rose significantly, and the 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 2.0% to 33.0%, a new high since 2017. After excluding outliers, the full - market 100 - yuan premium rate was 33.0%, up 2.0% week - on - week, at the 100.0% percentile since 2017 [5][7]. - Valuations in all parity ranges increased significantly this week. The valuation increase in the equity - biased and bond - biased areas was greater than that in the balanced area. The rise in the equity market led to an increase in the parity of bond - biased CBs and their valuations. The increase in unexpected non - call CBs and the strong upward momentum of underlying stocks also drove up the valuations of equity - biased CBs [5][12]. - From an individual bond perspective, in the high - parity area, most CBs with large valuation increases were non - call ones, such as Dinglong, Borui, and Yanggu. The conversion premium rates of Dianhua and Wankai CBs dropped below 10%, implying a certain call expectation. In the balanced and bond - biased areas, valuations mostly increased, mainly driven by the rapid rise of underlying stocks, such as Shenxun, Weixin, Rundong, and Yaoji [12][13]. - As of now, from the perspective of conversion premium rate, the weighted conversion premium rate percentiles of the parity range above 50 yuan are close to 100%, while the historical percentiles of the 80 - 90 yuan and 110 - 120 yuan parity ranges are relatively low. From the perspective of the bottom - support premium rate, the weighted bottom - support premium rate percentiles of the parity range above 100 yuan are close to 100%, and the historical percentiles of the 70 - 90 yuan parity range are relatively low [15][16]. 3. Clause Tracking 3.1 Redemption - This week, Huanxu and Huarui CBs announced redemptions, and 5 CBs announced non - redemptions, with a call rate of 29%. Currently, there are 31 CBs in the redemption process. Next week, 9 CBs are expected to meet the redemption conditions, and 8 are expected to issue announcements of potential call triggers. In addition, 21 CBs are expected to enter the call counting period within the next month [20][22]. 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Fangyuan and Lanfan CBs proposed downward revisions. As of now, 103 CBs are in the non - downward - revision period, 19 CBs cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 1 CB has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price without an announcement, 23 CBs are accumulating downward - revision days, and 4 CBs have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not yet gone to the general meeting of shareholders [27]. 3.3 Put Option - This week, no CB issued a conditional put option announcement. As of now, 5 CBs are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 3 are also accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision period [29]. 4. Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 9 CBs in the approved - registration progress, with a total issuance scale of 1.1 billion yuan, and 5 CBs in the listing - committee - approved progress, with a total issuance scale of 290 million yuan [31].