Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-10 15:01Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The software sector is expected to experience a rebound in revenue and profit in 2025, driven by cost reduction and improved fundamentals, with AI application commercialization being a key growth driver in 2026 [3][4]. - Customization in the Chinese software industry is a unique characteristic, making it less likely for large models to completely replace applications, as software companies accumulate significant industry know-how through deep interactions with clients [4][7]. - The report identifies the timeline for AI applications to impact valuations, suggesting that significant valuation increases occur when new technology revenue exceeds 10% of total revenue, with 2026 being a pivotal year for software companies [3][15]. - The report highlights four areas where AI applications are likely to commercialize quickly: AI Agents, multimodal applications, AI coding, and AI marketing [15][19][21]. Summary by Sections AI Application Commercialization - The software sector is entering a favorable phase for investment, with AI application commercialization expected to drive revenue growth in 2026 [4]. - Key areas for AI application commercialization include: - AI Agents: Enhanced capabilities for complex tasks through multi-agent systems and persistent memory [15][16]. - Multimodal Applications: Video and image generation are expected to monetize quickly due to high user willingness to pay [19]. - AI Coding: Rapid commercialization with significant ARR growth, exemplified by Cursor's $500 million ARR [21]. - AI Marketing: High digitalization and error tolerance in marketing make it a prime area for AI application [23]. Recent Developments in AI Healthcare - OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health, integrating personal health data for personalized health analysis, indicating a rapid penetration of AI in consumer health management [27][30]. - Ant Group's AI health assistant, Antifufu, has seen significant user growth, with monthly active users surpassing 30 million [29][30]. Key Investment Themes - Recommended investment themes include: - Digital economy leaders - AIGC applications - AIGC computing power - Data elements - Medical information technology [36].