机构行为更新专题:识与变化:一季度居民财富再配置新变局
Guoxin Securities·2026-01-10 15:01

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [4][5][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in resident wealth allocation due to a low interest rate environment, leading to a reallocation of funds from traditional savings to riskier assets [1][12][19]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is characterized by a transition from slow outflows to a more concentrated release of funds, indicating a rapid increase in market risk appetite [2][29]. - The report anticipates that the pulse-like release of deposits will provide substantial incremental capital to the A-share and Hong Kong markets, potentially exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first quarter [3][12]. Summary by Sections Deposit Low-Interest Environment - Deposit rates have fallen below 2%, prompting residents to seek higher-yielding investments [1][17]. - The decline in deposit attractiveness is pushing savings towards wealth management products and other financial instruments [13][19]. Wealth Management Transformation - There is a notable shift in asset allocation from bank deposits to non-bank financial products, with household deposits decreasing while non-bank financial institution deposits are increasing [20][22]. - The capital market's performance since June 2025 has catalyzed this shift, with the A-share market experiencing significant gains, thereby attracting more funds [20][24]. Changes in Deposit Migration - The report notes that the upcoming maturity of a significant volume of deposits, particularly three-year fixed deposits, will lead to a concentrated outflow of funds, enhancing risk appetite [29][33]. - The breaking of the "rigid redemption" of wealth management products has led to a reassessment of risk among conservative investors, prompting a return to safer deposit options [29][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on non-bank financial institutions that are likely to benefit from the ongoing deposit migration trend, particularly in the insurance and brokerage sectors [3][43]. - Specific companies highlighted for their strong potential include China Life, Ping An, and major brokerage firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4][43].