Changjiang Securities·2026-01-10 15:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental protection industry [13]. Core Insights - The central government has set a target for 2026 to actively resolve local government debt risks, with a focus on replacing hidden debts amounting to 2 trillion yuan in 2025, which has been exceeded by 106.6% [2][6][19]. - The environmental protection sector is expected to benefit significantly from the debt replacement policies, improving cash flow and performance for various companies within the industry [7][23]. - The report highlights that several environmental companies have seen a notable improvement in their accounts receivable, indicating a positive trend in cash flow [9][40]. Summary by Sections Policy and Progress - The National People's Congress approved a resolution to increase local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts, with a structured approach of 6 trillion, 4 trillion, and 2 trillion yuan [6][19]. - As of September 2025, the issuance of special refinancing bonds reached 2.31 trillion yuan, with 2.13 trillion yuan specifically allocated for replacing hidden debts, indicating proactive measures by local governments to address existing debt issues [8][27]. Improvement in Accounts Receivable - Companies like Hanlan Environment and Chuangye Environmental have reported significant recoveries in accounts receivable, with Hanlan recovering approximately 1.53 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [9][39]. - The overall cash flow for the environmental sector has improved, with a year-on-year increase of 31% in operating cash flow net [9][41]. Investment Logic - The report suggests two investment strategies: focusing on sectors with large accounts receivable and low risk, such as waste incineration and water operations, and identifying leading companies in sectors with high government-related receivables [10][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for cash flow improvement in the environmental sector due to the ongoing debt replacement policies, which are expected to enhance the repayment capabilities of local governments [42][44].