铝周报：内外现货走强，铝价继续攀升-20260110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Macro sentiment and the low overseas inventory pattern have jointly supported a significant upward movement in aluminum prices. The Shanghai Aluminum futures rose 4.9% last week, and the LME Aluminum rose 4.1%. Currently, despite the downward trend in the molten aluminum ratio and high aluminum prices leading to potential inventory accumulation in China, the low overseas inventory and strong spot supply - demand situation continue to drive up aluminum prices. Coupled with improved domestic spot trading and a marginal increase in downstream operating rates, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. This week, the reference range for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 23,800 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME Aluminum 3M, it is 2,950 - 3,300 US dollars/ton [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply Side: As of the end of December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.598 million tons, with December's production increasing 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. January's production is expected to increase month - on - month. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year. China's molten aluminum ratio dropped 0.8% in December 2025 and is expected to decline further in January [12]. - Inventory & Spot: As of Thursday, aluminum ingot inventory reached 718,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. Bonded area inventory was 55,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from December 31, 2025. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 184,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. LME global aluminum inventory was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week. The spot basis of East China aluminum ingots strengthened, and the LME market's Cash/3M shifted from contango to backwardation [12]. - Imports and Exports: In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 146,000 tons, a significant 41.0% decrease month - on - month and 2.8% decrease year - on - year. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons in November, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative exports from January to November were 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. Recently, the spot import loss of Shanghai Aluminum has widened [12]. - Demand Side: According to Aizhai Research, the weighted average operating rate of China's aluminum processing industry rose slightly by 0.3% week - on - week to 52.9%. The operating rates of aluminum plate and strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum rod sectors improved slightly. After the lifting of environmental controls in the Central Plains region after the New Year's Day, the operating situation improved. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained flat, and the aluminum rod sector was stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: Shanghai Aluminum rose 4.9% to 24,385 yuan/ton during the week (as of Friday afternoon's close), and LME Aluminum rose 4.1% to 3,149 US dollars/ton. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum narrowed compared to last week [24][27]. - Spot Basis: The discounts in East China, South China, and the Central Plains regions narrowed significantly compared to last week. The LME Aluminum Cash/3M shifted from contango to backwardation [33][40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased significantly compared to last week and is at a historical high [49]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory reached 718,000 tons on Thursday, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. Bonded area inventory was 55,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from December 31, 2025. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 184,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons compared to December 29, 2025. LME global aluminum inventory was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week and at a low level for the same period in previous years [52][56][61]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: The average domestic bauxite price decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price of imported Guinea monohydrate bauxite decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [72]. - Alumina Price: The domestic alumina price decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the import price remained unchanged [76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the thermal coal price increased by 17 yuan/ton [80]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In December 2025, alumina monthly production was 8.003 million tons, an increase of 162,000 tons from November and 8.7% year - on - year. The annual production in 2025 was 90.647 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase. Production in January 2026 is expected to remain high [86]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.608 million tons. December's production increased 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. The operating capacity in January is expected to be stable. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month increase and 2.2% year - on - year increase, with the annual production increasing about 2.8% year - on - year [89]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: This week, the aluminum rod processing fee turned negative, and the processing fee in Foshan continued to decline. In December 2025, China's molten aluminum ratio decreased by 0.8% month - on - month. The molten aluminum ratio decreased slightly this week and is expected to decline further in January 2026 [92]. - Provincial - Level Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production in each province increased compared to November [97]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In November 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.931 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. Cumulative output from January to November was 61.511 million tons, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease. As of January 5, 2026, the daily aluminum ingot出库量 was 91,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease. The operating rates of different downstream sectors showed different trends in 2025 [101]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the production schedule for household air conditioners in January 2026 is 18.51 million units, an 11% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year, reversing the previous decline. The production schedule for refrigerators is 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production schedule for washing machines is 8.1 million units, a slight 1.8% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Real estate data in November 2025 remained weak, automobile production and sales were fair, and the production schedule for photovoltaic modules in January 2026 is expected to decline [117]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum Imports: In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 146,000 tons, a significant 41.0% decrease month - on - month and 2.8% decrease year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January to November were 2.35 million tons, a 19.1% year - on - year increase. The spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened this week [122]. - Aluminum Product Exports: In November 2025, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative exports from January to November were 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease [129]. - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In November 2025, recycled aluminum imports were 163,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous month. Cumulative imports from January to November were 1.822 million tons, a 12.2% year - on - year increase [129]. - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In November 2025, China's bauxite imports were 15.109 million tons, with imported ore accounting for 73.3%. Cumulative bauxite imports from January to November were 185.959 million tons, a 29.3% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, China's alumina exports were 168,000 tons, a 12.2% year - on - year decrease. Cumulative alumina exports from January to November were 2.343 million tons, a 46.7% year - on - year increase [132].