国信期货有色（镍）周报：冲高回落，盘整蓄势-20260111

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Rise and Fall, Consolidating for Momentum - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated January 11, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and outlook for the future [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract [7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Upstream: It shows the port inventory of nickel ore in China [12] - Midstream: It includes the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and 8 - 12% nickel - iron, as well as the monthly import volume of nickel - iron [15][18][20] - Downstream: It covers the price, position, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles [22][30][32] Group 5: Outlook for the Future - In the US, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in December 2025, with the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.3%. There are differences in views on future interest - rate cuts, and the market is concerned about the new Fed chair. The probabilities of different interest - rate scenarios are provided. In China, the manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [38] - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a rise - and - fall trend this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia may be 2.5 billion tons, lower than in 2025. Indonesian nickel - iron production in December remained high, with large supply pressure. Stainless - steel demand enters the off - season, but production has increased due to price hikes. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [38]