燃料油产业数据月报-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In terms of refinery operations and production, previously shut - down refineries have resumed operations, and refinery utilization rates around the world have gradually risen to their annual highs, leading to a further increase in global fuel oil production. On the demand side, the marine fuel market has been lackluster, the power generation demand in the Middle East has seasonally weakened, and the feedstock demand in China and India has yet to recover [6]. - In terms of absolute prices, fuel oil prices around the world continued to decline during the month, but the weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil has diminished, and its cracking performance has been relatively stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil. In terms of the price spread between months, the abundant or even excessive supply of near - term spot has continued to suppress the valuation of near - term contracts, resulting in a contango structure in the price spread between months [6]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the export volume from the Middle East decreased in December, but production remained high. According to shipping data, exports are expected to increase significantly in January, with the Asia - Pacific region likely to be the main destination, and Singapore's prices are expected to remain weak. Currently, the only shortages in the world are in Russia and Latin America. Russian refineries have been attacked, leading to a continued decline in the country's processing volume, and the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela will lead to a decline in the output of high - sulfur heavy oil in Latin America, which will support high - sulfur prices in the Western Hemisphere at least [6]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, Brazil's exports are slowly recovering, and Kuwait's Al Zour refinery has begun to restart gradually, which will gradually fill the supply gap of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region and is expected to put downward pressure on prices in the future. However, it should be noted that the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery is expected to resume operations in late January, after which its low - sulfur heavy oil exports will gradually decline; in addition, the low - sulfur arbitrage window from Northwest Europe to Singapore is gradually narrowing, further suppressing the east - west arbitrage logistics [6]. - Overall, high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in January. The Middle East will continue to be the main supplier of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region. Unless Russia's exports decline unexpectedly, prices will still be difficult to break out of the weak situation. Some positive factors on the supply side of low - sulfur fuel oil are beginning to reverse, and its previous strength relative to high - sulfur fuel oil will weaken [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Fuel Oil Spot Prices and Spreads - Price and Spread Fluctuations: The FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujeirah increased by 0.54% and 2.45% respectively, while those in other regions mostly decreased. The FOB prices of 0.5% fuel oil in most regions decreased, with Singapore down 4.44%. Among the spreads, the high - sulfur cracking spreads in Singapore and Fujeirah increased by 27.51% and 26.99% respectively, while the low - sulfur cracking spread in the US Gulf decreased by 108.04% [8]. - Regional Price Trends: The report presents historical price trends of fuel oil in Asia - Pacific, the Middle East, Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, the United States, and the feedstock market in Europe and the United States through various charts [11][17][22][28][30]. - Arbitrage and Grade Spreads: It shows the historical trends of regional arbitrage and grade spreads of fuel oil, such as the high - and low - sulfur spread in Singapore, the viscosity spread, and the arbitrage margins between different regions [52]. - Spot Premium and Discounts: Presents the historical trends of spot premium and discounts in the Asia - Pacific and Middle East regions, including the premium and discounts of different grades in Singapore, the Arabian Gulf, and Fujeirah [54]. - Cracking Spreads: Displays the historical cracking spreads of fuel oil in major global markets, including Asia - Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and the United States [60][66]. - Fuel Oil Swap Market Term Structure: Shows the historical term structure of the fuel oil swap market, including the price differences between different months of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [72]. 3.2 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Supply Situation - Refinery Utilization: Presents the historical refinery utilization rates in Northeast Asia, the Middle East, South Asia, Latin America, and Europe and the United States, including China, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other countries [77][84][87]. - Refinery Maintenance: Shows the historical maintenance volumes of major global refining units, including CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units [89]. - Production Changes: Displays the historical production changes of fuel oil in major global producing countries, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and others [96][98][102]. 3.3 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Demand Situation - Regional Demand: Presents the historical fuel oil demand in regions such as China, the Middle East, Asia - Pacific, Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Europe, and Africa [105]. - Singapore Marine Fuel Market: Shows the historical sales of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil, and marine diesel in the Singapore marine fuel market [117]. 3.4 Global High - and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Logistics - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Presents the historical weekly and monthly import and export volumes of high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the United States, Singapore + Malaysia, and others [126][128]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Presents the historical weekly and monthly import and export volumes of low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, the United States, and others [131][134]. 3.5 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Inventory and Floating Storage - Spot Inventory: Presents the historical spot inventories of fuel oil in regions such as Singapore, Europe ARA, Fujeirah, and the United States, and also shows the monthly changes in inventory in different regions [139]. - Singapore Floating Storage: Shows the historical floating storage situation of fuel oil in Singapore [147]. 3.6 Domestic Fuel Oil Market Supply and Consumption - Production and Supply: Presents the historical production, commodity volume, catalytic unit utilization rate, and production profit margin of domestic fuel oil [152]. - Bonded Port Situation: Presents the historical total inventory, low - sulfur production, port inventories of major ports, and actual consumption of fuel oil in the domestic bonded port [158].