Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-11 02:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, particularly for high-quality companies like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also highlighting the potential of other brands such as Wuliangye and Yangjiao Gongjiu [2][6] Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, but a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in Q3 [2][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer price index (CPI) as a key indicator for systemic opportunities in the consumer goods sector, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI throughout 2026 [2][6] - Guizhou Moutai is implementing comprehensive market-oriented reforms focusing on product, pricing, and channel strategies, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and stabilize pricing [7][20] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - As of January 10, 2026, the price of Moutai's scattered bottles is 1540 RMB, up 50 RMB from the previous week, while the price for a case is 1545 RMB, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 40 RMB [7][20] - Moutai's market-oriented reforms are aimed at enhancing efficiency and expanding consumer reach, which is expected to lead to a balance between supply and demand, reducing downward price risks [7][20] - Anticipated strong sales growth for Moutai during the upcoming Spring Festival due to improved price-performance ratio and increased consumer access [7][20] Consumer Goods Sector - The report recommends focusing on the supply chain related to condiments, frozen foods, and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Anjui Foods, Yili, and Tianwei Foods [8][9] - Yili's operational trends remain positive despite recent stock price fluctuations due to insider selling, with expectations of improved industry supply-demand dynamics and profitability growth [8][9] - Forecasted net profits for Yili from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 11.3 billion, 12.2 billion, and 12.9 billion RMB, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 34%/7%/6% [9]