物价：回顾2025，展望2026：2025年12月通胀数据点评

Group 1: Inflation Overview - In December 2025, CPI increased year-on-year from 0.7% to 0.8%, while core CPI remained stable at 1.2%[2] - PPI narrowed its year-on-year decline from -2.2% to -1.9%[2] - The GDP deflator index for Q4 2025 is expected to be around -0.4%, with earlier quarters at -0.8%, -1.2%, and -1%[2] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The cumulative CPI increase for 2025 is 0.8%, a significant recovery compared to the average -0.1% in 2023-24[5] - Food prices rose by 1.1% in 2025, driven by increases in fruits, vegetables, and beef[5] - Gold jewelry prices surged by 68.5%, contributing to the overall CPI improvement[5] Group 3: PPI Trends - In the first half of 2025, PPI experienced a monthly average decline of -0.3%, compared to -0.2% in 2023 and 2024[6] - The second half of 2025 saw PPI stabilize with a monthly average of 0%, indicating a recovery in various industry chains[6] - Factors influencing PPI include global recession fears due to U.S. tariff policies and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[6] Group 4: 2026 Outlook - CPI is projected to rise by approximately 0.8% in 2026, with a technical adjustment of 0.1 percentage points due to base effects[10] - PPI is expected to decline by about -1%, with an upward adjustment of 0.4 percentage points due to price increases in the non-ferrous sector[10] - Potential upward risks for CPI include increased consumer subsidies and improved service supply in the economy[10]