居者有其屋，昂贵的“美国梦”

Group 1: U.S. Real Estate Market Challenges - The U.S. real estate market is currently facing a significant contradiction, primarily due to insufficient demand, with supply shortages being secondary[2] - As of January 2025, the average monthly cost of homeownership is $3,060, accounting for 43.2% of household income, significantly higher than the $2,227 monthly rental cost[2] - To bring homeownership costs down to rental levels, mortgage rates would need to decrease from the current 6.2% to 3.7%[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Impact on Housing Demand - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates 1-2 times in 2026, but the long-term interest rates may not decline significantly due to resilient consumer spending and other economic factors[3] - The mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is projected to remain around 4.0% by the end of 2026, limiting the potential for substantial reductions in mortgage rates[3] Group 3: Trump's Real Estate Policies - Trump's administration has proposed five key policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including transferable mortgages and a ban on large institutional purchases of single-family homes[4] - However, the effectiveness of these policies is questionable, as only about 1% of U.S. homes are owned by large institutional investors, and the proposed measures may have limited impact on demand[4]