资产配置框架系列研究报告一：如何把政策框架融入普林格时钟？

Core Insights - The report establishes a P (pring) P (policy) T (timing) asset allocation framework that connects macroeconomic fundamentals, policy frameworks, and asset price movements, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and their impact on asset prices [1]. Group 1: Adapting the Pring Clock to China - The Pring Clock identifies a sequential relationship between turning points in equity, fixed income, and commodity markets, emphasizing the gradual transition of asset classes through different economic phases [8][11]. - The six stages of the Pring Clock are: 1. Only bond market bull 2. Bull markets in bonds and equities 3. Bull markets in bonds, equities, and commodities 4. Bear market in bonds while equities and commodities remain bullish 5. Only commodity market bull 6. No market is bullish [12][14]. Group 2: Asset Allocation in Domestic Markets - The report outlines the industry rotation patterns in both China and the US, highlighting the transition from interest-sensitive and defensive sectors in early economic cycles to consumer discretionary, healthcare, and technology sectors in mid-cycles, and finally to industrial, materials, and energy sectors in late cycles [18]. - Due to restrictions on commodity futures trading for institutional investors in China, the report suggests using leading stocks in raw materials and energy as substitutes for commodities in asset allocation [22]. Group 3: Integrating Policy Frameworks into Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes the necessity of incorporating a policy framework into the existing asset allocation system, where macroeconomic fundamentals dictate policy variables, which in turn influence asset price movements [26]. - The "Four-Tier" framework is proposed to understand future policy directions, focusing on US-China relations, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth [29]. Group 4: Four-Tier Policy Framework - The report introduces the construction of four indices: US-China Game Index, Social Stability Index, Structural Transformation Index, and Economic Growth Index, each assigned different weights based on their importance [32]. - The US-China Game Index aims to quantify the interactions between the two countries across various dimensions, including international influence, economic strength, high-tech competitiveness, and financial market performance [35][37]. - The Social Stability Index is constructed from components such as income expectations, employment conditions, actual wealth, and extreme social events, reflecting its volatility and impact on overall policy indices [39]. - The Structural Transformation Index focuses on transitioning from real estate dependency to manufacturing, emphasizing the development of "new productive forces" driven by technological innovation [42]. - The Economic Growth Index is designed to track economic growth intensity from a supply-side perspective, ensuring that selected indicators effectively reflect macroeconomic trends [44].