周报：宏观与成本双支撑，重点提示冬储期钢铁配置机会-20260111

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.35%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and iron ore also experiencing gains [10] - Supply conditions indicate a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 86.0% for sample steel companies, with a weekly increase of 0.78 percentage points [22] - Demand has seen a decline, with a weekly drop of 44.20 thousand tons in the consumption of five major steel products [32] - Social inventory of five major steel products increased by 14.39 thousand tons week-on-week, indicating a growing stockpile [40] - The average profit for rebar steel has risen to 63 CNY per ton, reflecting a significant increase of 31.25% week-on-week [54] - The report anticipates a stable demand for steel supported by government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3] Supply Summary - As of January 9, the average daily pig iron output was 2.295 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.07 thousand tons [22] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces is at 56.9%, up by 1.76 percentage points week-on-week [22] - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.138 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.85% [22] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was recorded at 7.968 million tons, down 5.26% week-on-week [32] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95 thousand tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.47% week-on-week [32] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products stood at 8.652 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [40] - Factory inventory for the same products was 3.888 million tons, also showing a year-on-year increase of 10.71% [40] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,452.2 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 13.30 CNY [46] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,585.2 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 11.93 CNY [46] - The average profit margin for 247 steel companies is 37.66%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [54] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore at Rizhao Port is 823 CNY per ton, up by 12.0 CNY week-on-week [71] - The price for primary metallurgical coke remains stable at 1,715 CNY per ton [71] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises is -45 CNY per ton, down by 31.0% week-on-week [71] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel are highlighted for their growth potential and competitive advantages [72]