Orient Securities·2026-01-11 06:18Group 1: Economic Outlook - A moderate "opening red" is expected for 2026, with a divergence in market opinions regarding initial economic data and risk preferences[5] - The overall fiscal strength for 2026 will depend on the outcomes of local two sessions, impacting early-year economic performance[8] - The broad fiscal index showed slight improvement at the end of 2025, but remains low, indicating limited rebound potential for early 2026 infrastructure growth[15] Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment direction is shifting from traditional infrastructure to new productive forces, with increased focus on digital economy, AI, and green initiatives[19] - In Henan province, the first quarter investment targets for transportation, energy, and water conservancy are significantly lower than previous years, indicating a shift in investment focus[19] - Policy-driven financial tools are expected to support investments beyond traditional infrastructure, with significant funding allocated to emerging sectors[19] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The risk of "anti-involution" policies may exceed the positive effects of fiscal tools, potentially suppressing investment and impacting overall growth[20] - Changes in assumptions regarding fiscal measurements could lead to deviations in projected outcomes, highlighting the uncertainty in economic forecasts[22]