固定收益策略报告：开年债市跌什么？-20260111

Group 1 - The report highlights that the bond market experienced a significant decline at the beginning of the year due to several new changes compared to the end of the previous year, including dual pressure from equity and commodity markets, validated supply concerns, and amplified market volatility from institutional behavior [2][3][25] - The equity market saw a strong upward trend, with indices such as the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext Index showing notable gains, which historically correlates with rising interest rates in the bond market [7][8] - Commodity prices also surged, with significant increases in old-cycle commodities like rebar and glass, indicating a shift in market dynamics that further pressured the bond market [8][15] Group 2 - Supply concerns were validated as the issuance of government bonds increased significantly, with a net supply expected to reach approximately 1.1 trillion yuan in January, higher than the same period last year [15][27] - The central bank's bond purchase announcements fell short of market expectations, leading to a "bullish news falling flat" scenario, which contributed to the bond market's downward adjustment [22][25] - Institutional behavior exacerbated market volatility, with a stark contrast in bond buying and selling activities between the end of the previous year and the beginning of the new year, indicating extreme market conditions [3][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that while there may be a temporary release of market pressure due to emotional factors, the ongoing supply and liquidity variables remain uncertain, necessitating cautious evaluation of the downward potential for interest rates [5][27] - The bond market is expected to maintain a strategy favoring short-duration bonds, with low spreads, while long-duration bonds lack systematic opportunities, even if a rebound occurs [5][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the central bank's liquidity management and the issuance pace of government bonds, as these factors will significantly influence the bond market's trajectory [4][26]