2026.01.05-2026.01.09日策略周报：宏观短周期略拐头，A股实现开门红-20260111

Group 1 - The A-share market achieved a "good start" in the first week of 2026, with major indices showing significant upward movement: Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and ChiNext Index by 3.89% [2][3][9] - The rise in A-shares is attributed to several factors, including proactive measures by the National Development and Reform Commission in the "two new" sectors, the positive trends in December's PMI, PPI, and CPI, and the recovery of previously adjusted technology sectors [3][13] - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the mid-November 2025 high indicates an early onset of the spring market, with expectations of a recovery in the upward trend seen in the second half of 2025 [3][13] Group 2 - Among the 31 first-level industries, most have seen gains since the beginning of 2026, with the top performers being comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media, which have increased by 14.55%, 13.63%, and 13.10% respectively [4][25] - In the second-level industries, aerospace equipment II and wind power equipment have led the gains with increases of 24.49% and 20.01% respectively, while state-owned large banks II and joint-stock banks II have seen declines of -2.94% and -1.92% [4][26] - The third-level industries show marketing agency and aerospace equipment III as the top gainers with increases of 26.63% and 24.49%, while state-owned large banks III and home textiles have the largest declines at -2.94% and -2.56% [4][28] Group 3 - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a slight improvement, with December's PPI showing a year-on-year decline of -1.90%, an improvement from November's -2.20%, and CPI at 0.80%, marking the third consecutive month in positive territory [5][29][30] - The macro short-cycle composite index is in a slightly turning state, suggesting that the current cycle's bottoming process is still under observation [5][30] Group 4 - The investment outlook for 2026 is optimistic, as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a supportive policy environment for industrial upgrades and a favorable macroeconomic cycle expected to benefit upstream cyclical industries [6][7][32] - The report highlights continued interest in sectors related to "anti-involution," insurance, securities, aerospace, and strong technology sectors like artificial intelligence [7][32]