投资策略周报：春季躁动：从提前布局到加速突破-20260111

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the strong underlying drivers of the current bull market, including liquidity support, policy backing for capital markets, moderate fundamental recovery, and continuous industry catalysts, despite short-term overseas disturbances [1][9][10] - The report highlights the significant inflow into the A500 ETF, which accounted for 92.2% of the total net inflow of 110.6 billion yuan in December, indicating a strong market sentiment and confidence in the Chinese market [10][14] - The continuous appreciation of the RMB reflects a recovery in international capital confidence towards China, supported by a decline in the US dollar index and a surge in corporate foreign exchange settlements [18][19][21] Group 2 - The report identifies the small-cap index, CSI 2000, as an "invisible champion," outperforming the large-cap index during the recent market rally, supported by a favorable liquidity environment and moderate fundamental recovery [2][25] - The report suggests that the current bull market is characterized by a unique valuation expansion, where small-cap stocks face less resistance compared to large-cap stocks, potentially breaking the historical underperformance of small caps at year-end [2][25] - The report anticipates strong elasticity in small-cap stocks under conditions of risk appetite and liquidity support, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, suggesting that both can thrive simultaneously, driven by a global tech cycle and supportive policies [3][28] - It highlights the importance of monitoring the marginal change in profit growth (ΔG) for AI hardware, indicating that as long as ΔG remains stable, the sector is likely to continue benefiting from the ongoing valuation bull market [38] - The report notes that AI applications are transitioning from being a supporting role to becoming the core narrative of the tech sector, driven by policy support, demand release, and a mature industry ecosystem [49][50]