KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-01-11 08:15Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the pork price has slightly declined but remains supported by high slaughter volumes and increased breeding activity. The pre-Spring Festival stocking has not yet started, and downstream profits are still in need of recovery. The average price of live pigs as of January 9, 2026, is 12.58 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.36 CNY/kg. The industry gross white price difference is 3.85 CNY/kg, which has decreased by 0.13 CNY/kg week-on-week and 1.46 CNY/kg year-on-year, indicating potential for recovery as stocking begins [5][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the pre-Spring Festival stocking has not yet started, and downstream profits are still in need of recovery. The average price of live pigs is 12.58 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.36 CNY/kg. The industry gross white price difference is 3.85 CNY/kg, indicating potential for recovery as stocking begins [5][14]. Market Performance - From January 5 to January 9, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.84 percentage points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, while the agricultural index increased by 0.98%. The fishery sector led the gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Dahu Co. (+17.83%), Zhongshui Fishery (+16.07%), and Biological Co. (+15.46%) [7][20][24]. Key News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a 98% compliance rate in the national agricultural product quality safety monitoring for 2025. Additionally, the central reserve of frozen pork will initiate a two-way rotation with an outflow and storage volume of 17,800 tons each [6][26]. Price Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the average price of live pigs is 12.63 CNY/kg, down 0.13 CNY/kg from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 20.39 CNY/kg, up 0.95 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average price of white strips of meat is 16.85 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.05 CNY/kg [8][28].