短线或有反弹，但中期依旧看空

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined this week. Although there may be a short - term rebound next week, the medium - term outlook remains bearish. The bearish macro - and micro - level logics for treasury bonds, especially ultra - long bonds, are long - term, so it's necessary to be cautious when betting on a rebound [1][2][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From January 5th to 11th, treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. Various factors such as changes in stock markets, commodity markets, central bank policies, and inflation data affected the daily trends of treasury bond futures. By January 9th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.338, 105.570, 107.775, and 110.870 yuan respectively, down 0.108, 0.160, 0.050, and 0.510 yuan from last weekend [1][11] 1.2 Next Week's View - There may be a short - term rebound in the bond market next week, but the adjustment pressure remains in the medium term. Factors that may trigger a rebound include stock market adjustments, rising expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts, and weak economic indicators. However, the factors suppressing the bond market are long - term, and there won't be a major opportunity for the bond market to strengthen in the short term [13][14] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 58 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 763.234 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 349.184 billion yuan. The net financing amount of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit all increased [17][18][20] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. By December 31st, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.44%, 1.65%, 1.88%, and 2.31% respectively, up 6.46, 2.10, 3.03, and 3.50 basis points from last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [23][24][25] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. By January 9th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 42,234, 70,459, 86,203, and 125,268 lots respectively, with changes of - 35, - 8,144, - 14,320, and - 103 lots from last week. The open interests were 76,124, 166,548, 245,351, and 181,430 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,902, + 814, + 3,386, and + 13,012 lots from last week [31][34] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the IRR of each variety generally declined, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies is not obvious. Recommended cash - and - carry strategies include laying out short - hedging strategies after the market rebounds and moderately paying attention to widening the basis strategy [38] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - By January 9th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2603 - 2606 were - 0.042, + 0.005, + 0.090, and - 0.140 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.002, - 0.005, + 0.085, and + 0.070 yuan from last weekend [44] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - From January 5th to 9th, the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1.3236 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2214 trillion yuan. The funding rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all declined. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [46][47][50] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. By January 9th, the US dollar index rose 0.69% to 99.14 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.18%, down 1 basis point from last weekend. The Sino - US 10Y treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 229.9 basis points [56][57] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. By January 9th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index all increased compared to last weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also changed compared to last weekend [60][62] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling strategy on rallies. Specific strategies include not chasing the high in the short - term rebound next week, paying attention to short - hedging strategies, moderately paying attention to steepening the yield curve strategy after the long - end varieties strengthen, and moderately paying attention to widening the basis strategy [2][15][19]