有色金属行业周报：宏观升温板块大涨，重视稀土涨价行情-20260111

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the non-ferrous metals sector [4]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish sentiment towards non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, aluminum, rare earths, tin, lithium, gold, silver, tantalum, niobium, antimony, and uranium in the medium to long term [1][2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment is warming, leading to price increases in various non-ferrous commodities, with lithium, silver, tin, and aluminum leading the gains [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in rare earths and tantalum, which are less influenced by supply-demand dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold closing at $4,473 per ounce (+3.68%) and silver at $79.4 per ounce (+2.75%) [1]. - The U.S. labor market data indicates a slight decrease in unemployment to 4.4%, influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, now holding 74.15 million ounces [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper closed at $12,965.5 per ton (-0.93%), while SHFE copper rose to ¥101,210 per ton (+2.60%). Supply disruptions in Chile and a slight decrease in demand from downstream industries are noted [2]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum reached $3,149.0 per ton (+1.91%), with SHFE aluminum at ¥24,455.0 per ton (+7.78%). The report indicates a slight increase in domestic production capacity but weak downstream demand [3]. - Tin: SHFE tin contracts rose to ¥352,910 per ton (+7.7%), driven by macroeconomic sentiment and supply expectations from key producing regions [7]. Energy Metals - Nickel: Nickel prices experienced volatility, with LME nickel peaking at $18,000 per ton before a sharp decline due to increased inventory levels and weak demand [8]. - Cobalt: Cobalt prices remain stable around ¥460,000 per ton, with supply constraints expected to tighten further in 2026 due to export quota delays from the Democratic Republic of Congo [9]. - Lithium: Carbonate lithium futures reached ¥143,420 per ton (+18%), with expectations for increased demand from energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [10]. Strategic Metals - Rare Earths: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide have increased to ¥626,000 and ¥623,500 per ton, respectively, with expectations for continued price growth due to stable demand [12].