存储定新锚，债市困“供需”

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [42] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the beginning of the year, there was a significant divergence in the stock and bond markets, with equities having a "good start" and the bond market facing a "poor start". The "seasonal pattern" of the bond market has shifted to the equity market due to the maturity of various deposit - type institutions' funds from the end of the previous year to the end of the current year. The core driver of the A - share market has fundamentally changed, with the storage industry chain's market value surpassing that of the real estate industry chain. The economic elasticity is now driven by the technology cycle, which determines the new pricing benchmark for long - term interest rates. The bond market's core contradiction is the structural imbalance between supply and demand [2][4][7][10][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Seasonal Pattern Shift - The "seasonal pattern" of the bond market has shifted to the equity market. It's estimated that about 67 trillion and 75 trillion of household time deposits will mature in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Even if only 10% of the funds are reallocated, it will amount to trillions. These funds mainly flow into "fixed - income plus" wealth management products and dividend - type insurance, which intensifies the capital outflow pressure in the bond market [8][10] 3.2 Change in A - share Market Core Driver - Ten years ago (in 2015), the market value of the real estate industry chain was four times that of the storage industry chain. Currently, the market value of the storage industry chain is three times that of the real estate chain. The core indicator for measuring the A - share fundamentals and the Chinese economic cycle has changed from real estate prices to storage chip prices represented by memory. The technology expansion has brought "re - inflation" pressure, and the real estate's contribution to GDP fluctuations has approached zero [10][13] 3.3 Bond Market Supply - Demand Imbalance - The medium - to - long - term supply - demand issues in the bond market have gradually evolved into a systematic framework. There are two main paths: rising equities lead to falling bonds, causing the withdrawal of trading funds with unstable liabilities and the over - limit of banks' EVE indicators after long - term bonds are returned to the balance sheet; and rising equities lead insurance institutions to rebalance towards more stocks and fewer bonds, reducing the demand for long - term bonds. Assuming the treasury bond issuance structure is determined by "stable growth" plans and the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds remains unchanged, the supply and demand of long - term bonds will face an annual - level "imbalance" [16][17] 3.4 Adjustment of Local Bond Maturity - The main pressure in the bond market comes from the issuance inertia of ultra - long - term government bonds. Although there were expectations for the Ministry of Finance to shorten the issuance maturity, the issuance of 30 - year special bonds in Shandong Province in January 2024 somewhat dashed these expectations. General treasury bonds and general local bonds have relatively short maturities with limited compression space. Special bonds and special treasury bonds can effectively shorten the duration, but local governments are less willing to shorten their issuance maturities. Fiscal adjustment may have a strong lag, possibly going through three steps: issuance difficulties with the cost spread exceeding 35BP for several months, seeking policy support from the central bank to buy bonds, and finally being forced to adjust the issuance maturity if support is insufficient [19][20][21] 3.5 Shortening of Insurance Asset Duration - Insurance institutions' liability side has fundamentally changed. To compete for household savings, insurance companies have widely promoted dividend - type insurance to replace traditional life insurance. The average liability duration of dividend - type insurance is only 5 - 7 years. To achieve the promised high returns (about 3.4% - 3.5%), their asset allocation is more aggressive and more inclined to equity assets, and they need less ultra - long - term bonds. Insurance's demand for long - term bonds is shifting from "allocation - based" to "trading - based". In an environment of rising interest rate expectations, insurance institutions will postpone the allocation rhythm. The growth of insurance premiums does not match the supply of ultra - long - term bonds [28][29][30] 3.6 Banks Facing Regulatory Constraints - After banks承接 the long - term bonds sold by public funds and other institutions, the scale of their interest - rate - sensitive assets has increased significantly, causing the EVE indicator to approach or exceed the 15% regulatory red line. In 2026, reducing the shock scenario from 250bps to 225bps will release about 700 billion of EVE allocation space, which is far from enough for the large - scale new supply in the primary market. Due to regulatory requirements on the duration of assets included in the AC account, banks cannot place a large number of newly purchased ultra - long - term bonds in the AC account, further reducing their allocation willingness. The over - limit of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) indicator further restricts the buying space [35][36][37] 3.7 Abandoning "Bull - Market Thinking" - In the current non - bullish bond market situation, typical "bull - market thinking" such as absolute interest rate point thinking, the inertial behavior of allocation - based investors, and the "fear of missing out" mentality should be abandoned. Strategies suggest separating the low - duration core position from the trading position. The overall portfolio duration of the core position should be maintained at a moderately low level, mainly allocating short - term, high - liquidity credit bonds or certificates of deposit. The trading position can use a small amount of funds for short - term trading based on oversold rebounds or market sentiment, with strict profit - taking and stop - loss rules. "Less trading" or "no trading" is also a good strategy [38][39] 3.8 Conditions for Bear - to - Bull Transition - The real bear - to - bull transition in the bond market requires two key policy signals: the Ministry of Finance clearly shortening the issuance maturity of special bonds or special treasury bonds in the issuance announcement, and the central bank announcing or implementing a bond - buying program far exceeding the current scale [40]