政策刺激短期电池抢出口，锂盐需求淡季不淡

Group 1: Investment Rating - The走势 rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Last week (1/5 - 1/9), lithium salt prices continued to rise. LC2601's closing price increased by 15.6% week - on - week to 139,000 yuan/ton, and LC2605's closing price rose by 18% to 143,000 yuan/ton. SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 18.1% and 18.2% respectively [2][12] - On January 9th, two departments announced a reduction in the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% from April 1st, 2026, to December 31st, 2026, and the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate from January 1st, 2027. This will lead to a short - term rush to export batteries, increasing battery production and benefiting lithium carbonate. In the long run, it reflects the country's "anti - involution" policy. Lithium salt prices are expected to remain strong [3][13] - The second "anti - involution" meeting in the terminal battery industry aims to rectify irrational behaviors such as blind capacity construction and low - price competition. Cell prices may be more likely to rise than fall, facilitating the price - passing mechanism in the lithium - battery industry chain [3][13] - Inventory data shows off - season accumulation, but the production schedules of cathode factories have been revised upwards by multiple third - party institutions, indicating that the feature of non - weak demand in the off - season is becoming stronger [3][13][14] - Currently, high market sentiment and the rush to export strengthen the expectation of non - weak demand in the off - season. Lithium salt prices may continue to rise, showing a tendency to be more likely to rise than fall. Existing long positions can be held, while new long positions need to be carefully protected [3][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Policy Stimulates Short - term Battery Export Rush, Lithium Salt Demand Not Weak in Off - season - Lithium salt prices continued to rise last week. LC2601 and LC2605 closing prices, as well as SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, all increased significantly. The electric - industrial price difference widened, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed [2][12][13] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Zhongkuang Resources' 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project was ignited for trial operation on January 2nd, 2026. After the project is put into production, the company will have a total annual production capacity of 71,000 tons of battery - grade lithium salt [15] - Two lithium iron phosphate listed companies confirmed price increases of 1,500 - 2,000 yuan/ton [15] - The first batch of price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate in the new year has landed. Most customers have accepted a processing fee increase of 1,000 yuan/ton, and there are two options for lithium carbonate settlement [16] - On January 9th, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the VAT export tax - rebate policy for battery products [13][16] 3. Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Prices Rise with the Market - Lithium concentrate prices follow the upward trend of the market [17] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Slight Increase in Production, Marginal Inventory Accumulation under Off - season Pressure - Lithium salt production increased slightly, and inventory accumulated marginally during the off - season [19] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Cathode Material Prices Expected to Rise Continuously - Cathode material prices are expected to continue rising [45] 3.4 Terminal: Anti - involution in the Battery Industry, Focus on the Upward Momentum of Cell Prices - The battery industry's anti - involution efforts may drive up cell prices [59]