行业点评报告：光伏出口退税将全面取消，倒逼行业高质量发展

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [5][7] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to lead to a shift from low-price competition to competition based on technology, branding, and service upgrades [7] - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages and overseas production capacity are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges due to low-price competition exacerbated by export tax rebates, which have been utilized by some companies to lower prices in overseas markets [5][7] - The cancellation of these rebates aims to rationalize overseas market prices and reduce international trade friction [5] Short-term Impact - A transition period of nearly three months is set before the policy takes effect, likely leading to a surge in exports in Q1 2026 as companies rush to take advantage of the remaining rebate benefits [6] - In the first seven months of 2025, domestic photovoltaic cell and module exports amounted to 111.207 billion, a decrease of 22.64% compared to the same period in 2024, while from August to November 2025, exports increased by 23.81% year-on-year [6] Long-term Outlook - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity and promote high-quality competition within the industry [7] - Leading companies are anticipated to leverage their technological advantages and brand influence to maintain pricing power and gain market share [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading battery component companies with technological advantages and overseas production capabilities, specifically mentioning Aiko Solar and other notable companies such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, Tongwei, Junda, Dongfang Risheng, and Hengdian East Magnetic [8]