宏观与大类资产周报：假如中间价早于预期破7-20260111

Domestic Economic Indicators - December PPI exceeded expectations, recording a month-on-month increase of +0.2%, the highest growth rate of the year[1] - January PPI is expected to narrow significantly to around -1.2% year-on-year[1] Overseas Economic Indicators - U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 50,000 jobs in December, diminishing expectations for a Fed rate cut in January[1][16] - Trump plans to increase the U.S. defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion by 2027[1][16] Currency and Asset Market Insights - The central bank emphasized "preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations," with the probability of the RMB breaking 7 earlier than expected increasing[1] - If the RMB maintains strength, Hong Kong stocks may enter a favorable performance period[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - From January 4 to 9, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 14,550 billion CNY through reverse repos, with a 7-day reverse repo injection of 1,387 billion CNY[2][17] - The average funding rates for various instruments decreased, with DR001 down 0.4273 basis points to 1.2670%[3][18] Government Debt Financing - Local government debt net financing reached 1176.64 billion CNY, while national debt net financing was 4950 billion CNY, totaling 6126.64 billion CNY[19] - Upcoming planned issuance for local government bonds is 702.01 billion CNY and national bonds is 1670 billion CNY, with a net financing of approximately -3299.39 billion CNY expected[19] Market Performance Overview - A-share market showed strong bullish sentiment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82%[32] - The Hang Seng Index demonstrated clear signs of bottom rebound, increasing by 2.35%[32]