国泰君安期货能源化工尿素周度报告-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is a correction, while the medium - term trend is bullish. The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily urea output remains high. The demand side shows seasonal strengthening in agricultural demand, and the fundamentals of urea are improving. The subsequent upward drive depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, BoDa, JinKai, DongPing), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices of urea over the years. [6][7][20] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new capacity was 3920000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640000 tons. In 2026, it is expected to add 6510000 tons of new capacity. [24] Production Plan - Lists the production plans of urea enterprises, including start - up and shutdown situations and reasons. [26] Output - The production profit is at the break - even line, and the daily urea output remains high. The charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and the daily output of coal - based and gas - based urea in China over the years. [27][28] Cost - The raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for fixed - bed factories in Shanxi are provided, along with the full - cost trends of urea in different production processes (fluidized - bed, fixed - bed, natural - gas) over the years. [30][31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. Charts show the cash - flow profit and production profit of urea in different production processes over the years. [35][36] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, the export policy is tightened. Tables show the monthly net import (export) data of urea from 2018 to 2025 (E), and charts show the export profit and export volume of small - particle urea over the years. [40][41] Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strengthening. Different regions have different fertilizer - using seasons and crop types. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory of compound fertilizers over the years. [46][47][49] Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers are presented through charts of capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and inventory. [56][53] - Melamine: Charts show the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine over the years. [57][58] - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. Charts show the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and real - estate construction and completion data over the years. [60][61] Inventory - Factory inventory: On January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.30 million tons, or 0.29%. - Port inventory: As of January 8, 2026 (week 2), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32000 tons, or 18.60%. [66] International Urea - Multiple charts show the trends of FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil over the years. [70][71][73]