原油周度报告-20260111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil price may be strong, with Brent possibly reaching the $65 - 68 per barrel range. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI still face significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of the outer market, testing 380 yuan per barrel. The oil price decline accelerated under the influence of the current trade friction, but the medium - and long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to the potential reversal of macro expectations, which may amplify oil price fluctuations [5]. - The Iranian situation has rapidly deteriorated, and there may be some emotional premium in the short term, continuing the upward trend. In the medium - and long - term, Venezuelan crude oil may have a greater impact on the heavy - oil market, with a temporarily limited marginal impact on the global crude oil market. At least Chinese local refineries will be the final recipients, and there is currently a large amount of crude oil in transit. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is difficult to interrupt, and attention should be paid to the rhythm. OPEC+ production increase continues, with seasonal inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to disprove global inventory accumulation in the next 3 months [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - In 2026, the global crude oil supply is generally loose, with continuous structural surplus pressure. The demand growth rate significantly slows down, with an annual increase of only about 0.8%, and the demand structure is accelerating the shift from transportation fuel - driven to chemical raw material - driven [5]. - The short - term valuation is at a medium level. The strategy includes short - term unilateral waiting and not trying to go short prematurely, clearing long positions in calendar spreads and waiting, and closing long positions in EFS spread at high prices [7]. 2. Macro - The gold - oil ratio has strengthened again, short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to the medium - and long - term "re - inflation" trading. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [22][23][24]. 3. Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increase in the first quarter of 2026. In 2025, OPEC+ had significant cumulative production increases. Non - OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana have high - level production operations, with an estimated supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - The supply situation varies by country. For example, the UAE's Upper Zakum crude oil faced weak demand in February 2025; Saudi Arabia plans to adjust the official selling price of crude oil in February, etc. Short - term attention should be paid to the Iranian issue, which may cause an emotional premium of $3 - 5 per barrel [8]. 4. Demand - The demand in developed economies is in a structural decline, while the demand increment mainly comes from non - OECD countries, especially in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. China remains an important engine of demand growth in the Asia - Pacific region. The demand structure is shifting from transportation fuel to chemical raw materials [5]. - In Asia, China's new crude oil processing capacity since 2000 has exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day, and the second - batch non - state - owned import quota has been issued in 2026. In the US and Europe, the approaching spring refinery maintenance season will reduce the short - term demand for crude oil [10]. 5. Inventory - The US commercial inventory has stabilized, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average. European diesel inventory has declined, and gasoline inventory has increased. The global in - transit crude oil inventory has declined from a high level, and the global crude oil floating storage is high [68][73][75]. 6. Price and Spread - The spot market performance during the holiday was weak. The Dubai crude oil spread in the Middle East reached a six - week high, and the freight rate of very large crude carriers from the world to Asia dropped significantly. The North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the SC valuation is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [85][94][95].