Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. Southeast Asia is in the high-yielding period of rubber tapping, with an increase in supply. However, the temperature in northeastern Thailand is dropping, and factories are replenishing their inventories periodically, so overseas raw material prices may remain high. It is estimated that rubber tapping in northeastern Thailand will gradually stop at the end of January, and about a month later in the south. In the short term, the accumulation rate of natural rubber spot inventory may slow down. With the correction in the commodity market, rubber prices are expected to continue to decline, but the downward adjustment is also expected to be limited [100][101]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - Border conflicts and floods in Thailand have caused a rubber production reduction of over 44,000 tons and economic losses exceeding 2.995 billion Thai baht [5]. - From January to November 2025, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4% year-on-year, and exports to China increased by 119% [6]. - From 2014 - 2024, Sri Lanka's rubber production and planting area decreased by an average annual of 7% and 6.3% respectively. If the trend continues, the rubber industry may decline [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber futures rose, with RU leading the increase. On January 9, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 16,030 yuan/ton, 13,020 yuan/ton, 183.80 cents/kg, and 345.60 yen/kg respectively, with month-on-month increases of 2.72%, 2.32%, 2.17%, and 0.99% [10][12]. Basis and Spread - On January 9, 2026, the basis of whole milk - RU05 was -330 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7.04% and a year-on-year increase of 56.58%; the 05 - 09 spread was 25 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 58.33% and a year-on-year increase of 115.63% [16]. - RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads increased, while RU - BR spread decreased [17]. - This week, the import rubber market offer rose. The whole milk - Thai mixed rubber spread and 3L - Thai mixed rubber spread expanded [23]. Substitute Prices - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber supply remained at a high level, and the market price increased significantly due to cost factors. The raw material cost continued to rise, compressing production profits, and major suppliers continuously raised prices [28]. Capital Movements - The virtual - to - physical ratio and settled funds of both RU and NR increased. On January 9, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 22.71 and 20.92 respectively, with month-on-month increases of 12.62% and 4.92%; the settled funds were 6.892 billion yuan and 2.852 billion yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of 20.73% and 8.13% [31][34]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainy season in the south is approaching the end with decreasing rainfall, while the rainy season in the northeast has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period [37]. - The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [39]. - Domestic rubber - tapping is approaching the end, and overseas factory restocking demand supports rising raw material prices [41]. - The water - to - cup price spread in Thailand has decreased, and the spread of Hainan rubber latex into concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories has remained stable [45]. - Thailand's rubber processing profits have generally recovered [48]. - Hainan's delivery profit has increased, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so data updates have been suspended [51]. - In November 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month; in December, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month; in November, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month; in December, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased month - on - month [59][65][71][72]. - In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [76]. Demand - Some tire enterprises were in the "New Year's Day" holiday maintenance state this week, and production capacity utilization continued to decline. Full - steel tires were destocked, while semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory [82]. - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated; passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline; tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [83]. - In November 2025, the highway freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [87]. Inventory - China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with a higher accumulation rate than the previous period. The inventory in Qingdao Port increased significantly, with a 6.6% increase in inbound volume and a 31% decrease in outbound volume [94]. - On January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1.045 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%; the 20 - rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 0.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.74% [97]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: As of Friday, the raw material glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5% [101]. - Demand: Most enterprises that had maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday have restored production to normal levels, and some enterprises are still in the recovery stage. The overall shipment of enterprises is poor, and inventory reduction is slow [101]. - Viewpoint: Although there is an increase in supply during the high - yielding period of rubber tapping in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices overseas may remain high. The inventory accumulation rate of natural rubber spot may slow down in the short term, and rubber prices may continue to decline, but the downward space is limited [101]. - Valuation: On Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [101]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait for opportunities to go long on dips. 2) Inter - delivery: Observe. 3) Inter - commodity: Go long on RU and short on NR [101].
国泰君安期货能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20260111
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-11 09:57