国泰君安期货螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The raw materials are stronger than the finished products, and the profit of steel mills continues to be compressed [3] - The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the rebound of the disk price. The strong raw materials and weak finished products lead to the continuous compression of steel mill profits. Technically, the black chain index, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and coke contracts face the pressure of previous highs, and chasing the rise may need to wait for the price to break through [5] - It is expected that the molten iron output will stop falling and then fluctuate and rise, and attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil inventory [9][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel Fundamental Data - Threaded Steel Basis Spread: There is a weak reality and strong expectation, and the basis spread is in a reverse spread [14] - Threaded Steel Demand: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains at a low level. It is the traditional off - season, and demand declines [19][22][23] - MS Weekly Data: The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is healthy. The supply and inventory of long - and short - process steel are also analyzed [24][26] - Threaded Steel Production Profit: With the expectation of steel mill resumption of production and inventory replenishment, the disk profit shrinks [28] 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - Hot - Rolled Coil Basis Spread: There is a weak reality and strong expectation, and the basis spread is in a reverse spread [34] - Hot - Rolled Coil Demand: The demand is flat, with poor production schedules in the home appliance and automobile industries. The implementation of standards has led to a decrease in export orders on a month - on - month basis [38][39] - MS Weekly Data: The hot - rolled coil inventory is high, and production cuts are needed to reduce inventory [41][42] - Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit: With the expectation of steel mill resumption of production and inventory replenishment, the disk profit shrinks [43] 3.3 Variety Regional Difference - Analyzes the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coil, hot - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate [52] 3.4 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply - Demand - Inventory Data - Presents the seasonal data of supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate [60]