棉花：暂无新驱动，期价回调20260111

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures fluctuated following the price of Chinese cotton, rising at the beginning of the week and falling later. The report maintains the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slight upward trend and waits for the determination of phased support [1][2][17] - It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the output of the new year after the Spring Festival, considering the demand situation [2][17] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuous: Open price 64.30, high price 65.76, low price 64.24, close price 64.48, change 0.47, change rate 0.73%, trading volume 152,672 lots, trading volume change 76,763 lots, open interest 171,048 lots, open interest change -6,364 lots [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuous: Open price 14,600, high price 15,095, low price 14,515, close price 14,675, change 90, change rate 0.62%, trading volume 2,666,762 lots, trading volume change 1,519,133 lots, open interest 848,986 lots, open interest change -11,739 lots [5] - Cotton Yarn Main Continuous: Open price 20,590, high price 21,200, low price 20,500, close price 20,690, change 105, change rate 0.51%, trading volume 57,242 lots, trading volume change 20,545 lots, open interest 16,816 lots, open interest change -2,774 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton futures rose and then fell this week, mainly following the price of Chinese cotton. At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise in Chinese cotton futures and spot prices widened the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, driving some funds to buy ICE cotton futures, which once reached 65.76 cents per pound. In the second half of the week, as Chinese cotton futures fell, the weekly US cotton export data was poor, and the US dollar strengthened, ICE cotton futures also declined, returning to around 64.5 cents per pound [1][5] - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 34,900 tons, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the four - week average. The total signing volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.5425 million tons, accounting for 59% of the annual forecasted export volume (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 710,400 tons, accounting for 46% of the annual total signing volume [6] - India: The import tariff on cotton has been restored since January 1, 2026, with a comprehensive tax rate of 11%, causing the cotton price to rise [7] - Brazil: In December, the export volume of raw cotton reached 452,000 tons, setting a new monthly export record. From July to December, the export volume of raw cotton was 1.532 million tons, an 11% increase from the same period last year and a 28% increase from the same period in the previous production season. As of January 3, the national cotton planting progress was about 31%, about 6 percentage points higher than the previous week and slightly faster than the same period last year [8] - Pakistan: The export demand for yarn has improved. The total cotton output this year is expected to be in the range of 7 - 7.25 million bales. The domestic cotton market trading is light, and the supply of high - quality cotton is tight. The price and demand in the domestic yarn market have shown a mild recovery [8] - Bangladesh: In December, the export value of ready - made garments was $3.23 billion, a 3% increase from November but a 14% decrease from the same period last year. The cumulative export value in the first six months of this fiscal year was $19.4 billion, a 3% decrease from the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year. The textile mills are still under pressure due to energy supply shortages, high raw material costs, and low corporate profits [9][10] Domestic Cotton Situation - The price of domestic cotton futures and spot first rose and then fell. The trading volume of cotton spot improved compared with last week. The one - price of cotton spot first rose and then fell with Zhengzhou cotton, and the sales basis of spot remained stable overall [11] - As of January 9, there were 7,388 registered warehouse receipts and 2,299 forecast warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 9,687 receipts, equivalent to 406,854 tons [11] - The prices of cotton yarn and grey cloth increased, but the trading volume was average. The market for pure cotton yarn was mainly for rigid demand. The demand for high - count combed yarn was good, while the demand for medium - and low - count yarn was insufficient. The price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the increase could only cover 50% - 60% of the increase in cotton price. The opening rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline, and the inventory accumulated; the opening rate of Xinjiang spinning mills remained high, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. The price of the full - cotton grey cloth market increased, but the actual trading was difficult to follow up [12] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including cotton sales progress, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill cotton inventory, etc., with data sources from mysteel and tteb [14][15][16] 4. Operational Suggestions - Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate with a slight upward trend and wait for the determination of phased support. It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the output of the new year after the Spring Festival, considering the demand situation [17]