生猪：累库确认，短期仍未见释放驱动

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week (1.5 - 1.11), the spot price of live pigs showed a strong - side oscillation. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 23.2 yuan/kg (last week: 21.75 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 12.98 yuan/kg (last week: 12.45 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1556 yuan/head (last week: 1546 yuan/head). The supply was tight due to slow resumption of group slaughter and strong reluctance of retail farmers to sell, while the demand side had negative feedback as downstream entered the loss stage after New Year's Day. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.38KG (last week: 124.19KG), a 0.15% MoM increase [1]. - The futures price of live pigs oscillated. The highest price of the LH2603 contract this week was 11925 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11610 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11770 yuan/ton (last week: 11795 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 1030 yuan/ton (last week: 655 yuan/ton) [2]. - Next week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. The overall slaughter progress in December was fast, leading to a shortage of pigs in the social group after the Winter Solstice, which drove up the reluctance to sell. Coupled with the entry of secondary fattening, the spot price rose sharply. After the New Year's Day holiday, the negative feedback from the downstream was obvious, and the spot price accelerated its decline. After the holiday, due to the reduction in enterprise slaughter and the reluctance to sell in the social aspect, inventory accumulation occurred again. From the supply perspective, according to the piglet data, the supply will enter a continuous incremental stage until March 2026. There have been multiple rounds of inventory - accumulation sentiment. In October, secondary fattening intervened, the overall supply progress in November was slow, and the weight did not decline significantly in December, so the supply pressure was not effectively relieved. From the demand perspective, the low price in October stimulated demand and increased the enthusiasm for warehousing, and secondary fattening continued to enter the market, which exceeded market expectations but also pre - empted the speculative demand increment for re - inventory accumulation. After the temperature drop in December, the demand for curing and regular demand increased, and the slaughter volume continued to rise. In general, the group continued to accumulate inventory in early January, the weight - reduction plan was postponed, and the feed data increased again, indicating that the social aspect was also under pressure. In mid - January, the demand will enter a vacuum period, and it is expected to be under pressure [3]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11770 yuan/ton on January 9th. In early January, enterprises reduced the slaughter volume, the weight increased, the social aspect was forced to accumulate inventory, the feed data increased again, the downstream losses were obvious, the negative feedback suppressed the slaughter volume, and inventory accumulation was confirmed. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The negative expectations will continue to suppress the near - term contracts. In October, the losses of piglets stimulated the elimination of productive sows, and the continuous rise in piglet prices drove the repair of the far - end price center. The far - end has entered the stage of expected trading, and attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - This week, the basis was 1030 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 spread was - 445 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Supply - This week's average weight was 124.38KG (last week: 124.19KG). In November, the pork output was 5.46 million tons, a 2.6% MoM decrease; the pork import was 60,500 tons, a 14.16% MoM decrease [13]. 3. Price - No specific summarized price information other than those mentioned above 4. Demand - No specific summarized demand information other than those mentioned above