Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The pricing of iron ore has deviated from supply - demand fundamentals, and is strongly supported by macro factors. Although overseas supply has weakened marginally and domestic demand has rebounded, the pricing of black commodities and iron ore is still driven by the upward macro risk appetite and capital's pursuit of commodities. In the short - term, supported by macro expectations, iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Mainstream Mines: At the beginning of the year, shipments and freight rates of mainstream mines have both declined. There are also news disturbances regarding the acceptance of Jinbuba ore and the pricing indices used by Rio Tinto and FMG at the beginning of the year. For example, global shipments were 3213.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463.4 million tons; Australian shipments were 1874.0 million tons, a decrease of 165.7 million tons; Brazilian shipments were 792.5 million tons, a decrease of 151.5 million tons [4][5][16]. - Non - mainstream Mines: Shipments from Ukraine are expected to resume in 2026 according to shipping schedules. Shipments from countries like India, Peru, Canada, and South Africa also show different trends [20]. - Domestic Mines: After the New Year's Day, the operation rate in the southwest region has significantly increased [29]. 3.2 Demand - Downstream Demand: The marginal change in downstream demand is small, generally in line with market expectations. There may be a pre - Spring Festival restocking drive, and the molten iron output has rebounded on a week - on - week basis. The 247 - enterprise molten iron output was 229.50 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons [5][32]. - Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel: The price trends of iron ore and scrap steel have diverged again, and the scrap - iron price difference continues to narrow [35]. 3.3 Inventory Port inventories remain at a high level. The 45 - port imported ore inventory was 16275.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 304.4 million tons [4][39]. 3.4 Downstream Profits The futures market profits of downstream products continue to be weak [43]. 3.5 Spot Category Price Differences The price of imported PB fines remains relatively strong [47]. 3.6 Futures Market Spreads - Inter - month Spread: The 5 - 9 spread is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the market is still waiting for a driving force to widen [51]. - Basis: The basis has weakened and returned to the level of the same period last year [56]. 3.7 Contract Performance The price performance of the main 05 contract remains strong, closing at 820.50 yuan/ton. The open interest was 639,900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 46,500 lots; the average daily trading volume was 341,300 lots, a week - on - week increase of 6,400 lots [9]. 3.8 Spot Price Performance The prices of medium - grade iron ore have shown strength again. For example, the price of PB fines in Qingdao Port increased from 802 yuan/ton last week to 826 yuan/ton this week [10][11].
铁矿石周度观点-20260111
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-11 10:07