铅产业链周度报告-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile overall. Considering the low inventory and the compressed profit of secondary lead, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage due to the continuous premium of the spot [7]. - Primary lead smelters are under maintenance, leading to pressured primary lead production, while the output of secondary lead is increasing. On the demand side, the purchasing willingness is weak [7]. - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.94%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.37%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,970, with a weekly decline of 1.20% [8]. - The LME lead premium changed from - 37.81 to - 46.54, a decrease of 8.73; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 100; the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 125, a decrease of 75 [8]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 15 to - 40.90, a decrease of 25.90 [8]. 3.1.2 Inventory - The total lead inventory in five regions increased this week, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The inventory of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 2,724 to 16,188; the total inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 2,107 to 30,111; the social inventory increased by 600 to 19,600; the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 222,725, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 5.06% to 27.04% [3][8]. 3.1.3 Transaction and Position - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last Friday was 58,684 lots, an increase of 1,799 compared with the previous week; the position was 42,928 lots, a decrease of 8,072 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 last Friday was 6,649 lots, an increase of 2241 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Supply Aspects (Primary Lead, Secondary Lead, Lead Concentrate) 3.2.1 Lead Concentrate - The import volume, production volume, actual consumption volume, and inventory of lead concentrate are presented in the historical data charts, but no specific latest data is summarized here. The import TC of lead concentrate is in US dollars per dry ton, and the domestic TC is in yuan per ton [29][30]. - The profit of imported lead concentrate and domestic lead concentrate is also presented in the historical data charts [31]. 3.2.2 Primary Lead - The production of primary lead is under pressure. Primary lead smelters in Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan and other places are under continuous maintenance, affecting the supply of primary lead. The weekly production and operating rate data of primary lead are presented in the historical data charts [7][34]. 3.2.3 Secondary Lead - The profit of secondary lead enterprises is compressed, but the output has increased as heavy - pollution weather warnings have been lifted in Henan, Anhui and other places. However, with the weakening of consumption, the circulation of waste batteries is tight, and the raw material arrival volume is low this week [7]. - The production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, profit and loss data of secondary lead are presented in the historical data charts [34][39][40]. 3.3 Demand Aspects (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) 3.3.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase. The operating rate, finished - product inventory days, and export volume data of lead - acid batteries are presented in the historical data charts [7][45]. 3.3.2 End - Users - The actual consumption volume of lead and the production volume data of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the historical data charts, reflecting the consumption situation of end - users [47].