能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price fluctuations of domestic and international fuel oils have significantly increased recently, with the up - and - down trends reversing frequently. For high - sulfur fuel oil, stable Middle - East exports and the off - season of marine fuel will put downward pressure on prices. However, due to the un - recovered heavy - oil supply in Venezuela and potential geopolitical conflicts in Iran, the high - sulfur market remains uncertain, and prices are unlikely to decline in a trending manner in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the Al Zour refinery will gradually resume production, there are still upward drivers. Brazilian exports are showing a decline, and the Dangote refinery's maintenance will end in January, leading to reduced exports. Additionally, the geopolitical issues in Venezuela will bring risk premiums. In the short term, domestic and international low - sulfur prices will remain strong. But the stronger domestic market than the overseas market will widen the internal - external price spread, attracting domestic traders to import for profit, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices [4]. - The valuation of FU is 2400 - 2550, and LU is 2900 - 3150. Unilaterally, fuel oil prices have entered a high - volatility environment in the short term, and the direction of price movement is unclear. In terms of inter - period spreads, the monthly spread structures of FU and LU have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues cool down. For inter - variety spreads, the short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached low levels, and the LU - FU spread will enter a volatile phase in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025, showing the trends in refinery operations [8]. - It also shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2026, reflecting the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [11][13][15][16]. - Data on the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil (including total and low - sulfur fuel oil) from 2018 - 2025 are provided, indicating the domestic supply situation [20][21]. Demand - The report provides monthly data on the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, showing the demand situation at home and abroad [25]. Inventory - It presents data on the spot inventory of global fuel oil, including the heavy - oil inventory in Singapore from 2018 - 2026, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA from 2018 - 2026, the heavy - distillate inventory in Fujairah from 2018 - 2026, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2026 [29][31][32]. Price and Spread - Regional Spot FOB Prices: The report shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore, Fujairah, Mediterranean, etc.), Europe (North - West Europe, US Gulf), and the US from 2018 - 2026 [37][39][42][46]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: It includes the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in North - West Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026 [49][50][52]. - Spot Spreads: The report presents data on the viscosity spread and high - low - sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2026 [58][59]. - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and North - West Europe from 2019 - 2026 [61][62][63]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads: The monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and North - West Europe from 2022 - 2026 are provided [65]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [70][72]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, and Singapore from 2018 - 2026 are shown [74]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore, China, the US, and the Middle East from 2018 - 2026 are presented [76]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review: The weekly Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices entered a volatile phase, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. The impact of geopolitical issues on overseas spot prices gradually subsided, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices gradually narrowed as the number of warehouse receipts decreased [79]. - Logic: In the short term, due to the cooling of geopolitical events, the strength of the overseas spot market has declined. At the same time, the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU has started to decrease. It is expected that the spreads between FU, LU, and the Singapore market will increase in the short term [79]. - Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets: The report shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets from 2021 - 2026 [83][84][85]. - Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes: Data on the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are provided [91][97][100]. - Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Numbers: The changes in the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented [102][103].