国泰君安期货金银周报-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is influenced by geopolitical factors, with rising geopolitical risks stimulating risk - aversion sentiment. It is judged that gold has reached a new starting point for an upward trend, and it is recommended to increase gold allocation [3]. - For silver, there are signs of weakening in both capital and fundamentals, and the pressure for continued price increases is growing. The trend - following long - position strategy is worth exiting, but the long - term upward trend has not ended. Strategies such as buying silver puts, buying gold, and using platinum and palladium for short - position protection are recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - Price and Spread - This week, London gold rose 3.24%, and London silver rose 5.29%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 58 to 57. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.9%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.18% (2 - year 3.54%), and the US dollar index was 99.13 [3]. - Overseas gold: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 9.395 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 45.4 dollars per ounce [10]. - Overseas silver: The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.114 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.37 dollars per ounce [16]. - Domestic gold: The current - futures spread was - 3.56 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the inter - monthly spread was 8.66 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22][28]. - Domestic silver: The current - futures spread was 28 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the inter - monthly spread was 31 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [24][31]. - Inventory - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.83 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 53.2% [39]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 312 tons to 13677 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 28.4% [41]. - Domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 0.05 tons, and domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 71.38 tons to 620 tons [45]. - Position and Capital - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both decreased slightly [47]. - Gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 0.57 tons, and domestic gold ETF increased by 5.8 tons [50]. - Silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 135 tons [54]. - This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; for silver, it was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [37]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [63]. - Information on inflation, retail sales performance, non - farm employment performance, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented in the form of charts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided in the text. - The 3M gold lease rate was - 0.35%, and the 3M silver lease rate was 5.35% [58].