聚烯烃周报-20260111

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 11, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhou Fuqiang [2] Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views PE - The supply of PE is expected to remain relatively loose in the future, with increased imports at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is in a seasonal off - peak period, and the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. The price is under pressure before the Spring Festival [5][6]. - The cost - side support for PE is average, and the inventory de - stocking is not smooth. The market is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with a suggestion of shorting on rebounds [6]. PP - In the off - season, the PP price is under pressure. The supply center has declined recently, and the Q1 PDH device maintenance plan has increased. The import and export volumes are expected to remain at a basic level in the short term [92]. - The downstream demand is mixed, with some industries showing weakening demand and others having certain support. The overall inventory de - stocking is not smooth, and the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rebounds [93][94]. Summary by Directory PE Section Price & Spread - The futures price of PE has shown a strong and volatile trend, with the basis remaining stable, and the 5 - 9 month spread strengthening to - 31. The production profit of different processes has different degrees of change, with the oil - based profit at - 520 (+30), and the coal - based at - 80(+70) [6]. - The domestic and overseas prices and spreads of PE have changed, with the Chinese arrival price increasing by 10 - 30 dollars, and the import window gradually opening [15][24]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity growth rate of PE was 16%, and the domestic production growth rate was 18%. The overall start - up rate was 83.7% (+0.4%). Although there were some maintenance and production conversions, the supply was still relatively high [6]. - The import of PE is expected to increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, and the new order imports are relatively cautious [6]. Demand & Inventory - The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is in a seasonal off - peak period, with the agricultural film start - up rate decreasing and the demand for raw materials expected to decrease [6]. - The inventory de - stocking of PE is not smooth, with the social inventory de - stocking slowing down, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory can be transferred downstream [6]. PP Section Price & Spread - The basis of PP is weakly volatile, and the month spread is weakening. The production profit of different processes is under pressure, with the oil - based profit at - 1300 (+10), and the coal - based at - 220(-50) [94]. - The Chinese arrival price of PP has rebounded, and the import window is tending to open, but the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited increase [108]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity growth rate of PP was 12.7%, and the annual production growth rate was 16.7%. The Q1 PDH device maintenance plan has increased, and the supply center has declined [92]. - The PP import volume is expected to be limited in the short term, and the export volume is also restricted by factors such as freight and overseas demand, and is expected to remain at a basic level [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate of PP has declined, but the demand for some industries such as BOPP films is relatively good. The overall inventory de - stocking is not smooth, and the inventory is relatively high compared to the same period [93][94].