锌产业链周度报告-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is strongly priced by macro factors, and its price is likely to rise rather than fall. It is rated as neutral to strong in terms of strength analysis [2][6]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space determines the upside potential of prices. In the short - term, under the influence of strong market sentiment and geopolitical conflicts, the risk premium of non - ferrous metals has increased significantly, and zinc prices are difficult to weaken under the strong macro - pricing logic [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Price and Price Changes: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 23,970, with a weekly increase of 2.99%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,149, with a weekly increase of 0.70% [7]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 143,227, a decrease of 11,716 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 76,633, a decrease of 9,946. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 15,979, an increase of 8,265, and the open interest was 233,998, an increase of 3,770 [7]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic inventories showed a slight accumulation. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,946, while the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 4,059. The social inventory increased by 12,400, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged [7]. - Fundamental Data: The import zinc ore processing fee decreased by 6 to 38 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc ore processing fee remained stable at 1,500 yuan/ton. The import zinc ore smelting profit increased by 2,921 to 38 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 200 to - 1,554 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high level in history, smelting profits have rebounded but are still at a low level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - Production Capacity Utilization: Zinc smelting production capacity utilization has continued to decline, and downstream production capacity utilization is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, refined zinc production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, and downstream galvanizing production capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide production capacity utilization have declined to a medium - low level [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated strongly. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable, and the premium in Antwerp rebounding. The LME CASH - 3M has fallen from a high level and turned into a C structure [18][19]. - Price Spreads: The C structure of SHFE zinc has widened [21]. - Inventory: This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has decreased. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [26][32][34]. - Futures: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and the smelter raw material inventory has rebounded [38][39]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting production has declined to a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter finished product inventory has rebounded to a high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy production is at a high level [45][46]. - Recycled Zinc Raw Materials: No comprehensive summary information is available. 3.5 Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [55]. - Downstream: The monthly production capacity utilization of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different changes [58][60][65]. - Terminal: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [72]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon allowances, and electricity in different countries show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different European countries also varies [74][75][77].