铸造铝合金产业链周报-20260111

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 11, 2026 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Analysts: Wang Rong, Wang Zongyuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the bullish sentiment in the market is strong. The price of Shanghai aluminum has been rising, driving the price of cast aluminum alloy to fluctuate strongly, once reaching a high of 23,490 yuan/ton. Overall, with the cost side continuing to rise and strong bullish sentiment in the market, the price of cast aluminum alloy is still anchored to the aluminum price and may fluctuate strongly [6]. - From the current weekly micro - fundamentals, as of January 9, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.19 million tons to 13.21 million tons compared with the previous week, reaching a high level of visible inventory [6]. Summary by Directory Transaction End - Price and Volume - The report presents data such as price spreads, capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest of different contracts, showing the trading performance in the market [9] Transaction End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2601.shf and AD2602.shf contracts, the fixed cost of the inter - period positive spread is 4.60 yuan/ton, and the floating cost is 91.97 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 96.57 yuan/ton [12] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 23,300 yuan/ton. After calculating various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, the warehouse receipt cost is 23,361.3 yuan/ton [14] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventories are continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The price difference between scrap and refined aluminum has strengthened [16][21][31] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has weakened. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. ADC12 costs are mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently in a loss state. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy has opened [35][40][46][51][61] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The terminal consumption shows that fuel vehicles have entered the year - end sales rush stage, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the auto inventory warning index [68][69] Production and Inventory of Recycled Aluminum Rods - The report provides data on the production and factory inventory of recycled aluminum rods, as well as the production and inventory proportion distribution in different regions [63][64][65]