工业硅：关注下游减产情况、多晶硅：情绪端或有提振

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the inventory has decreased. The overall supply has declined marginally as some northwest factories have reduced production. The downstream demand for industrial silicon remains weak, with polysilicon planning to cut production and silicone factories likely to reduce their loads in January, leading to a decrease in demand for industrial silicon. The market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upside potential for the futures price. However, short - term sentiment factors such as "component rush for exports" and a warming macro - environment may support the price floor. It is recommended to short at high prices, with a suggested short - selling range of 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton and a stop - profit range of 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton. The expected futures price range next week is 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [7][8]. - For polysilicon, the futures price has adjusted downward. The price increase of silicon materials has gradually been transmitted to downstream sectors, providing short - term support for the spot price of silicon materials. The supply is weak while the demand is strong. The supply has shrunk due to the dry season and high upstream inventory, leading to production cut expectations. The demand is expected to be boosted by the component rush for exports in the first quarter. Considering the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton, the futures price is expected to remain above this level. However, the market liquidity has been decreasing since late December, and it is not recommended to participate in futures trading. The expected futures price range next week is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures price has dropped from its high, partly due to the decline in polysilicon futures. The Friday futures price closed at 8715 yuan/ton. The spot price has remained stable, with the Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon quoted at 8700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period) and the Inner Mongolia 99 - grade silicon at 8950 yuan/ton (also unchanged) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen, and the pre - holiday futures price closed at 57,920 yuan/ton. The upstream spot price has remained firm, with downstream rigid demand for restocking and some high - price orders [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory has decreased slightly. The Xinjiang region has reduced its production, while the southwest region's production has remained stable. The total weekly production has decreased marginally. The southwest region has entered the dry season, with a calculated cost of 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price). The local production has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang have also reduced production, resulting in a marginal decrease in short - term supply. The SMM statistics show that the social inventory has decreased by 0.5 million tons, the factory inventory has increased by 90,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory has decreased by 0.41 million tons. Future attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [2]. - Demand: The downstream rigid demand is weak. In the polysilicon sector, the weekly production schedule has decreased, and there are plans to shut down a large silicon - material factory in Inner Mongolia from February to May to relieve inventory pressure, which may lead to a marginal decrease in demand for industrial silicon. In the silicone sector, the weekly production has decreased, and there are plans for further production cuts to support prices. However, due to the off - season demand and high inventory, the price - support logic is difficult to implement. The export tax rebate for silicone will be cancelled after April 1st, and the pre - emptive export rush may bring some consumption growth. In the aluminum alloy sector, aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers have stocked up reasonably, with higher purchasing enthusiasm at low prices and a wait - and - see attitude at other times. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [3]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production has decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, silicon - material manufacturers are expected to cut production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The SMM statistics show that the inventory of silicon - material manufacturers has decreased month - on - month. After the market sentiment adjustment this week, downstream purchasing has been relatively cautious. The current manufacturer inventory is around 30 million tons, and the industry inventory, including downstream raw - material inventory, is around 50 million tons, approaching 5 - 6 months of consumption. The overall average full cost is estimated to be in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton, assuming no consideration of increased costs due to production cut depreciation and state reserves [4]. - Demand: The silicon - wafer production schedule has increased week - on - week. In January, the silicon - wafer inventory is relatively reasonable, and the price increase has been transmitted to downstream sectors, supporting silicon - wafer enterprises to increase production. The component rush for exports in the first quarter is expected to boost terminal demand due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate for components starting from April. Future attention should be paid to the price increase of components [6]. 3.3 Futures Research - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to short industrial silicon at high prices. The expected futures price range for industrial silicon next week is 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton, and for polysilicon, it is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Inter - period trading: No recommendations are provided [9]. - Hedging: It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - selling hedging [9]. 3.4 Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from December 19, 2025, to January 9, 2026, with prices remaining relatively stable during this period [11]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Supply - Side (Smelting and Raw Materials) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the domestic industrial silicon social inventory and factory inventory trends, monthly production, monthly production seasonality, monthly production capacity utilization rate, monthly production capacity utilization rate seasonality, profit calculations for different regions and grades of industrial silicon, monthly export and import volumes of industrial silicon, trade - link inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, electrodes, and electricity prices in major production areas [12][13][15][19]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Polysilicon) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the spot price of polysilicon, domestic polysilicon production and year - on - year growth, polysilicon industry production capacity utilization rate, polysilicon import and export volumes, polysilicon industry profit calculation, single - crystal silicon wafer export volume and year - on - year growth, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, and domestic new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [23][24]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Silicone) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the average price trend of domestic DMC, DMC industry monthly production capacity utilization rate, DMC production and monthly year - on - year growth, DMC factory inventory seasonality, primary - form polysiloxane export volume and year - on - year growth, and DMC industry profit calculation [24][25]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Aluminum Alloy) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the seasonal price chart of recycled aluminum ADC12, recycled aluminum industry monthly production capacity utilization rate, recycled aluminum alloy profit calculation, and monthly automobile sales [29][31][34].