国泰君安期货煤焦周度观点-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to event - driven factors and valuation repair, along with subtle changes in the supply - demand structure, coal and coke will maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern. The recent rebound is not based on the commodity's fundamental narrative, and the market game focuses on two aspects. Firstly, there are concerns about coal mine supply - guarantee management in 2026, and the potential withdrawal of some coal mines from supply - guarantee measures. Secondly, black commodities were previously at low prices, and funds are more interested in undervalued varieties. With the expected tightening of domestic supply and issues in Mongolian coal imports, the contradiction between industry and capital behavior needs further attention. Before the Spring Festival, coal and coke will likely continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended that investors try to go long on dips and, after the option is listed, use strategies such as selling 1000P or covered call strategies [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly View Supply - Domestic coal supply has recovered rapidly as previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coal mines this week was 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,000 tons. Mongolian coal's year - end volume rush has ended, and high port inventories are expected to affect subsequent customs clearance. Mongolian coal customs clearance is expected to decline in January [3] Demand - This week, the hot metal output increased by 20,700 tons to 2.295 million tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for raw material procurement has increased compared to the previous period, which supports coking coal prices. However, the resumption rhythm of downstream steel mill blast furnaces still needs to be observed. It is expected that the hot metal output will remain in a low - level oscillation in the first ten days of January and will rebound significantly in the middle and late ten days [4] Inventory - This week, the total inventory of coking coal in all links increased by 144,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory increase was mainly in independent coking plants and ports. The inventory in independent coking plants increased by 192,000 tons week - on - week, and the port coking coal inventory increased by 170,000 tons compared to last week [5] Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - Supply: FW raw coal was 8.2638 billion tons (+208.2 million tons), FW clean coal was 4.2002 billion tons (+97.6 million tons), the daily average of independent coking plants was 636,000 tons (+80,000 tons), and the daily average of steel mill coking enterprises was 469,000 tons (+10,000 tons) [8] - Demand: The hot metal output was 2.295 million tons (+20,700 tons) [8] - Inventory: The MS total inventory increased by 597,000 tons, the mine raw coal inventory decreased by 34,000 tons, the mine clean coal inventory increased by 104,300 tons, the independent coking plant inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, the independent coking plant inventory increased by 192,000 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 17,000 tons, the steel mill coking plant inventory decreased by 45,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the port inventory increased by 170,000 tons while the port inventory decreased by 109,000 tons [8] - Profit: The profit of commercial coal was 445 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 23 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton) [8] - Warehouse Receipt: The warehouse receipt of Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan was 1,210 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt of quasi - dry quenched coke in ports was 1,700 yuan/ton [8] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly data shows the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the开工 rate of 523 sample mines. The monthly data shows the production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal. The data on Mongolian coal customs clearance shows the customs clearance volume of different ports [10][12][14] Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 28,900 tons week - on - week to 2.1926 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 48,400 tons week - on - week to 1.5336 million tons [25] - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.998 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons [27] - Coking Plant: The inventory data of coking plants is presented, including the total inventory, inventory by region, and inventory available days by different production capacities [30][32][34] - Steel Mill: The inventory data of steel mills is provided, including the total inventory, inventory by region, and inventory available days [36] 02 Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 independent coking plants, and by different production capacities and regions, are shown [39] - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises is presented [41] - Output - Coking Plant: The daily output of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises is shown [47] - Output - Steel Mill: The daily output of 247 steel enterprises is presented [49] Inventory - Coking Plant: The inventory data of coking plants, including full - sample and 230 independent coking plants, is shown [51] - Steel Mill: The inventory data of steel mills, including total inventory, inventory by region, inventory available days by region, and the total inventory of the full - sample, is presented [52][54][59] Demand - Pig Iron - The supply - demand difference of coke, daily supply, daily demand, and the daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises are shown [63] Profit - The profit data of coke, including the disk profit of coking per ton and the average profit of independent coking enterprises per ton, is presented [66] 03 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2605 and 2609, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are shown [69] Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2605 and 2609, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are shown [74] Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coking coal and coke in different years are presented [77][79] Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are shown [83] Coal and Coke Basis - The basis data of coking coal and coke are presented [86]