黑色金属周报合集-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The raw materials are stronger than the finished products, and the steel mill profits continue to be compressed. The iron ore pricing is detached from supply - demand, with strong macro - support. The coal - coke supply - demand is subtly repaired, but contradictions are still accumulating. The ferroalloy market is affected by long - short sentiment, and the futures trading may return to the fundamentals [8][77][136][228]. - The macro - environment is generally favorable. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti - involution", and the special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [10][13]. - For iron ore, although the overseas supply is marginally weakening and the domestic demand is rebounding, the pricing is mainly affected by the upward macro - risk preference, and the ore price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [79]. - For coal - coke, due to event - driven and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure has subtle changes, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating [139]. - For ferroalloys, the alloy prices first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - Supply - demand and profit: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is loose, but the cost supports the futures price rebound. The strong raw materials and weak finished products lead to the continuous compression of steel mill profits. The iron water production is expected to stop falling and then oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil inventory [10][14]. - Rebar: The basis and spread of rebar show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The new - house sales remain at a low level, and the market confidence is still sluggish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is healthy. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [21][26][32][37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The basis and spread of hot - rolled coil also show a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The demand is flat, and the export order receipt decreases month - on - month. The inventory is high, and production reduction is needed to reduce inventory. The steel mill's resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the futures profit [42][48][49][53][55]. - Variety spread and regional difference: Analyzed the price spreads between different steel products (such as cold - hot spread, coil - rebar spread) and regional price differences [59][66]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipments have declined from the high level at the beginning of the year, and there are also disturbances in the acceptance of Jinbuba and the pricing index of Rio Tinto and Fortescue. The supply of non - mainstream mines has some changes, and the domestic mines in the southwest region have significantly increased their production after the New Year [79][90][102]. - Demand: The downstream may show a restocking drive before the Spring Festival, and the iron water production has rebounded month - on - month. The substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore is weakening [79][108]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore remains at a high level [112][115]. - Price performance: The main 05 - contract price of iron ore is still strong. The medium - grade iron ore prices are strong in the spot market [83][84]. 3.3 Coal - Coke - Supply: The domestic coal production has rapidly recovered, and the Mongolian coal imports are expected to decline in January due to the high port inventory [136]. - Demand: The iron water production has increased, and the downstream raw material procurement enthusiasm has improved, but the blast furnace resumption rhythm of steel mills still needs to be observed [137]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has increased month - on - month, mainly in independent coking plants and ports [138]. - Viewpoint: The coal - coke market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The contradictions between supply and demand are still accumulating, and investors are advised to try to go long at low prices [139]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - Market trend: The prices of ferroalloys first rose and then fell this week, with a slight decline in the price center. The cost side may be supported by ore and coal prices, and the futures may maintain an oscillating trend [230]. - Manganese silicon: The production has decreased slightly month - on - month. The new round of steel procurement is about to start, and the steel mills may start the restocking rhythm. The manganese ore supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the port prices are firm [237][244][261]. - Silicon iron: The production has increased month - on - month. The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei has increased month - on - month, and the raw material restocking rhythm may start. The non - steel demand has some changes, and the inventory has increased [274][279][287][289].