国泰君安期货研究周报：农产品-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil is currently in the upper range of the bottom - side oscillation. After the MPOB report next week, there may be a short - term reaction of negative news being digested, but it lacks upward driving force. Long - term direction is unclear, and short - term operations are recommended. Potential driving forces are expected in February - March and April - May [5][8]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - The outlook for South American soybeans is positive, and the US soybeans are expected to stabilize in an oscillatory manner in January. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the domestic spot market's driving force for the domestic soybean product spread. Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation [7][8]. 2.3 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - For soybean meal and soybean No.1, price fluctuations next week are mainly determined by the USDA report. If the report is positive, soybean meal prices are expected to rise; if neutral, it will continue to oscillate at a low level. For soybean No.1, in addition to the USDA report, domestic reserve sales should also be monitored [25]. 2.4 Corn - The corn market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Although there is some selling pressure from farmers before the Spring Festival, the price correction range is limited [38][43]. 2.5 Sugar - Internationally, the sugar market is in a weak - expectation pattern, and New York raw sugar is in a low - level range - bound operation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a weak basis, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [64][89]. 2.6 Cotton - ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. The domestic cotton market lacks new driving forces, and it is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand and new - year production. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [90][91][106]. 2.7 Live Pigs - Spot prices of live pigs are expected to be weakly oscillatory, and the LH2603 futures contract is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The support level is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 12,000 yuan/ton [110][111]. 2.8 Peanuts - The peanut market is in an oscillatory operation. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling by oil mills, and after the festival, there may be selling pressure [126][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Last Week's Situation: Palm oil's 05 contract rose 0.81% last week, and soybean oil's 05 contract rose 1.63%. Palm oil was supported by production cuts and good export data, while soybean oil had limited upward drive due to lack of South American weather speculation [4]. - This Week's Outlook: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory may exceed 3 million tons, suppressing the rebound of the oil sector. After the MPOB report, there may be a short - term reaction of negative news being digested. For soybean oil, the good prospects of South American soybeans put pressure on US soybeans, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as low purchases in the first quarter and state - reserve auctions [5][7]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Last Week's Market: The US soybean prices fluctuated with a slight upward shift. Domestic soybean meal prices were strongly oscillatory, and soybean No.1 prices rose. Factors such as Chinese purchases of US soybeans, import soybean auctions, and market sentiment affected the prices [19][20]. - Next Week's Outlook: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are mainly affected by the USDA report. For soybean No.1, domestic reserve sales also need attention [25]. 3.3 Corn - Market Review: In the spot market, the national average corn price rose slightly last week. In the futures market, the price also increased, and the basis weakened [38][39]. - Market Outlook: CBOT corn prices rose. Wheat prices fell, and import corn auctions restarted. Corn starch inventory increased, and the corn market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish before the Spring Festival [40][43]. 3.4 Sugar - This Week's Market Review: Internationally, the US dollar index rose, and New York raw sugar prices increased. Domestically, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi rose, and Zhengzhou sugar prices also increased. The net long position of funds decreased [62][63]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: Internationally, the sugar market is in a weak - expectation pattern, and New York raw sugar is in a low - level range - bound operation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a weak basis, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [64][89]. 3.5 Cotton - Market Data: ICE cotton and domestic cotton futures and spot prices first rose and then fell. ICE cotton was affected by Chinese cotton prices and other factors, and domestic cotton was affected by market sentiment and fundamentals [90][91][94]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the US cotton export data was mixed, and the situations in other cotton - producing and consuming countries varied. Domestically, cotton prices fluctuated, and the trading volume improved slightly. The yarn and fabric markets had price increases but limited transactions [95][100][101]. 3.6 Live Pigs - This Week's Market Review: Spot prices of live pigs were strongly oscillatory, and futures prices were oscillatory. Supply was tight due to slow group - farm sales and strong reluctance to sell by individual farmers. Demand entered a loss - making phase after New Year's Day [108][109]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: Spot prices of live pigs are expected to be weakly oscillatory. The supply is expected to increase continuously until March 2026, and the demand is in a vacuum period in the middle of January. The LH2603 futures contract is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [110][111]. 3.7 Peanuts - Market Review: In the spot market, peanut prices were stable with a slight decline. In the futures market, prices fell last week. The supply was sufficient, and the demand from food enterprises and oil mills was limited [126]. - Market Outlook: The peanut market is in an oscillatory operation. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling by oil mills, and after the festival, there may be selling pressure [127].