镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行，不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The market is influenced by Indonesian policy news, with differences in expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless - steel prices may also show wide - range fluctuations. The key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter [4][8][9]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon inventory has decreased, and attention should be paid to downstream production cuts. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in sentiment, with the supply - demand situation showing a pattern of weak supply and strong demand. It is recommended to short industrial silicon at high levels [28][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The "rush - to - export" demand may boost off - season demand, and lithium prices are likely to remain strong. It is recommended to use options for hedging [65][66][68]. - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation, with a potential short - term reaction of negative news being digested after the MPOB report. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [99][100][102]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: The price fluctuations of soybean meal and soybean No.1 mainly depend on the USDA report. If the report is positive, soybean meal prices are expected to rise; otherwise, they will remain in a low - level oscillation [113][114][119]. - Corn: The corn market is expected to be oscillating strongly. Although there are some negative factors, the price decline before the Spring Festival is expected to be limited [133][134][138]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is in a low - level consolidation, and the domestic market maintains a weak basis expectation. Attention should be paid to Brazilian production and export rhythms, Indian production and policies, and domestic import policies [157][159][184]. - Cotton: ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. The domestic cotton market lacks new drivers, and it is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand [185][186][201]. - Hogs: The spot price of hogs is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the futures price of the LH2603 contract is under pressure in the near - term [203][204][206]. - Peanuts: The peanut market is oscillating. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking by oil mills, and after the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure [220][221]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Influencing Factors: News mainly includes the 250 million - ton nickel ore quota target in Indonesia, the consideration of including associated minerals in the pricing and taxation system, and fines for illegal mining [4][5]. - Market Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary - market funds. Stainless - steel prices may follow nickel prices and are also affected by cost and fundamental factors [8][9]. - Inventory Situation: Refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories have different trends. For example, on January 9, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,306 tons [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices adjusted downward [28]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased. The overall industry inventory showed different trends [29][30][33]. - Market Outlook: Industrial silicon is recommended to be shorted at high levels, and polysilicon is expected to be in a certain price range [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends: Futures and spot prices continued to rise [65]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand was uncertain. Inventory increased [66][67]. - Market Outlook: Lithium prices are likely to remain strong, and it is recommended to use options for hedging [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Previous Week's Situation: Palm oil was supported in the short - term, and soybean oil followed the range - bound operation of the oil and fat sector [99]. - This Week's Outlook: Palm oil may have a short - term reaction of negative news being digested, and soybean oil is waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [100][102]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Previous Week's Situation: U.S. soybean prices fluctuated, and domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 prices showed different trends [113][114]. - This Week's Outlook: Price fluctuations depend on the USDA report [119]. Corn - Market Review: Spot and futures prices rose in the week of January 9. The basis of the main contract weakened [133][134]. - Market Outlook: CBOT corn rose, wheat prices fell, and corn starch inventory increased. The price decline before the Spring Festival is expected to be limited [135][136][138]. Sugar - This Week's Review: International and domestic sugar prices showed different trends. Fund positions and production data in different countries changed [157][158]. - Next Week's Outlook: The international market is in a low - level consolidation, and the domestic market maintains a weak basis expectation [159][184]. Cotton - Market Situation: ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. Domestic cotton prices also fluctuated [185][186]. - Market Outlook: It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand [201]. Hogs - This Week's Review: Spot prices were strong and oscillating, and futures prices were oscillating. The basis of the LH2603 contract increased [203][204]. - Next Week's Outlook: Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, and the futures price of the LH2603 contract is under pressure in the near - term [205][206]. Peanuts - Market Review: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [220]. - Market Outlook: The market is oscillating. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking by oil mills, and after the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure [221].