碳酸锂：抢出口预期支撑锂价，电芯提涨或成终端隐忧

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate continued to rise, and the industry entered a pattern of inventory accumulation. Although the fundamentals weakened in the short - term, the expected "rush to export" might boost the off - season demand, and the lithium price was expected to remain in a state where it was easier to rise than to fall [1][4] - Unilaterally, it was expected to fluctuate at a high level with the center of gravity moving up, and the price range of the futures main contract was estimated to be between 135,000 and 155,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, a long - short spread strategy was recommended as the "rush to export" demand might drive the near - term contracts stronger. For hedging, due to large fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises were advised to use options tools to hedge at appropriate times [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - This week, lithium carbonate futures contracts continued the upward trend after the holiday. The 2601 contract closed at 138,700 yuan/ton, up 18,700 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2605 contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton, up 21,840 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 21,500 yuan/ton week - on - week to 140,000 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2601 contract) rose 2,800 yuan/ton to + 1,300 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium and discount quotation was - 1,510 yuan/ton, strengthening 230 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2601 and 2605 contracts was - 4,720 yuan/ton, weakening 3,140 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 2. Supply Side of Lithium Salt Upstream - Lithium Ore - Policy: From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - refund rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%; from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax - refund for battery products will be cancelled [2] - Supply: The domestic weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,535 tons, a slight increase of 115 tons from last week. The output in January was expected to remain at a high level. In the first week of 2026, the shipment of Australian lithium ore was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons month - on - month, and the shipment of Chilean lithium salt was 8,640 tons, a decrease of 1,228 tons month - on - month [2] 3. Consumption Side of Lithium Salt Mid - stream - Lithium Salt Products - Demand: The production schedule of cathode materials in January was adjusted upwards, but there were still uncertainties. The production schedule of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 6.5% month - on - month, and that of ternary materials was basically flat month - on - month. The price of battery cells increased, but the increase was still less than that of upstream raw materials, and the inhibitory effect on terminal demand needed further transmission. The domestic demand for new energy vehicles remained weak. In December, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.563 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The demand for energy storage continued to grow at a high rate. In December, the winning bid volume was 59.8 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 87.7%. At the beginning of January, many enterprises launched centralized procurement tenders [2] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased again. The industry inventory was 109,942 tons, an increase of 337 tons from last week. The upstream and mid - stream accumulated inventory, while the downstream continued to destock. The speed of new futures warehouse receipts increased this week, with 5,079 new registrations and a total of 25,360 lots [3] 4. Consumption Side of Lithium Salt Downstream - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report presents multiple charts related to the downstream consumption side, including the monthly output and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of lithium batteries, as well as the import and export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided in the text [29][30][31]