工业硅：关注下游减产情况多晶硅：情绪端或有提振

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the inventory has decreased. In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether downstream sectors will cut production. The fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand, with limited upward space for the futures price. However, short - term sentiment - driven speculation and the preference of funds for low - value varieties may limit the downward space. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound to 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton to place short orders and set a stop - profit at 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton [7]. - For polysilicon, the futures price has fallen and adjusted. Attention should be paid to the production cuts of silicon material enterprises. The current supply - demand situation shows weak supply and strong demand. The bottom of the futures price has support, and it is expected not to fall below the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. However, since late December, the daily open interest has been decreasing, and market liquidity has been continuously lost, so it is not recommended to participate in futures trading. The recommended trading strategy is to place short orders for industrial silicon at high prices, with the expected futures price range for industrial silicon next week being 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton and for polysilicon being 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. There is no recommendation for cross - period trading, and it is recommended that upstream industrial silicon plants conduct short - hedging [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, with the Friday closing price at 8715 yuan/ton, partly due to the decline in polysilicon futures and the market's anticipation of downstream production cuts. The spot price has remained stable, with the SMM - reported price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon at 8700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period) and Inner Mongolia 99 - grade silicon at 8950 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen and adjusted, with the pre - holiday closing price at 57,920 yuan/ton. In the spot market, upstream prices are firm, downstream purchases are based on rigid needs, and there have been cases of high - price contract signings [1]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Production: The weekly industry inventory has decreased slightly. In Xinjiang, the number of operating plants has decreased, and in the southwest, the operating rate has remained unchanged, with the overall weekly output decreasing slightly. In the southwest, due to the dry season, the cost in the dry season is estimated to be 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), and the local operating rate has dropped to a very low level. Some plants in Xinjiang are in a heat - preservation state, resulting in a short - term marginal reduction in supply [2]. - Inventory: The SMM statistics show that the social inventory has decreased by 0.5 million tons this week, the factory inventory has increased by 0.09 million tons, and the overall industry inventory has decreased by 0.41 million tons. Future attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand Side - Polysilicon: In the short term, the weekly production schedule of silicon materials has been reduced. Market news indicates that a large silicon material factory in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down completely from February to May to relieve inventory pressure. If implemented, it will lead to a marginal decrease in the demand for industrial silicon [3]. - Organic silicon: The weekly output of organic silicon has decreased this week. It is reported that the organic silicon industry also plans further production cuts to support prices. Considering the current off - season demand and high organic silicon inventory, the price - support logic is not yet smooth. However, since the export tax rebate for organic silicon will be cancelled after April 1st and exports account for 20 - 25% of domestic production, the pre - emptive export rush may bring some consumption increments. Attention should be paid to price transmission [3]. - Aluminum alloy: Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers have made reasonable stockpiles in the industrial silicon market, with high enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices and a strong wait - and - see attitude at other times [3]. - Export market: Overseas demand has not improved [3]. 4. Polysilicon Supply Side - Production: The short - term weekly output has decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, it is expected that silicon material manufacturers will start passive production cuts to relieve high inventory pressure [4]. - Inventory: The SMM statistics show that the inventory of silicon material manufacturers has decreased month - on - month this week. After the market sentiment adjustment, downstream purchases are relatively cautious. Currently, the manufacturer's inventory is still around 3 million tons, and the industry inventory, including downstream raw material inventory, is about 5 million tons, approaching 5 - 6 months of consumption [4]. - Cost: Based on the current raw material prices, assuming no consideration of the increased costs due to production - cut depreciation sharing and state reserves, the overall average full cost may be in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton [4]. 5. Polysilicon Demand Side - Silicon wafer: In January, the silicon wafer inventory is relatively reasonable, and the price increase of silicon wafers has been transmitted downstream, supporting silicon wafer enterprises to increase production schedules. Therefore, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased month - on - month [6]. - Terminal demand: In the first quarter, due to factors such as the cancellation of the component export tax rebate starting from April, the component industry will face a peak season for pre - emptive exports, which is expected to boost terminal demand. Future attention should be paid to the price increase of components [6].