煤炭行业周报（1月第1周）：焦煤供应下降，看好焦煤弹性-20260111

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a decrease in coking coal supply, indicating a potential for price recovery due to low inventory levels and reduced supply [6][25] - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 6.26% compared to the index's 2.79% rise, marking a 3.47 percentage point advantage [2] - The report suggests that the current policy environment is balancing between "checking overproduction and ensuring supply," which may lead to stronger policy support as coal prices decline [6][25] Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.05 million tons for the week ending January 8, 2026, a week-on-week increase of 17.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [2] - Demand: The power and chemical industries showed mixed results, with coal consumption in the power sector decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year, while the chemical sector increased by 9.2% [2][23] - Inventory: Total coal inventory (including port storage) stood at 23.48 million tons, unchanged week-on-week but down 11% year-on-year [2][23] Price Summary - Coking coal prices at major ports showed a decline, with the main coking coal price at Jing-Tang Port at 1,650 CNY/ton, down 2.9% week-on-week [4] - The report notes that the futures settlement price for coking coal increased by 6.5% week-on-week to 1,188 CNY/ton, indicating market volatility [4][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and resilient coking coal companies, with specific companies highlighted for investment [6][25] - Notable companies in thermal coal include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, while coking coal companies include Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others [6][25]