Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-11 11:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating a value reassessment logic for the year 2026 [2][4]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment, with a significant increase in trading volumes and a recovery in investment banking activities. The average daily stock trading volume reached 28,519.51 billion yuan, up 65% year-on-year [4][20]. - The insurance sector is projected to experience a year of value reassessment in 2026, driven by declining liability costs and an increase in equity allocation ratios. The report highlights that the P/EV valuation model for leading insurance companies is expected to improve as the growth potential of liabilities becomes more apparent [4][17]. - The brokerage sector is currently in a phase of fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on firms with strong competitive positions and earnings elasticity [4][9]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,758.92 with a weekly increase of 2.79%, while the non-bank index rose by 2.60% to 2,107.56. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported increases of 1.90%, 3.58%, and 4.44%, respectively [7][9]. Non-Bank Sector Key Data - As of January 9, 2026, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.88%, reflecting a weekly change of +1.98 basis points. The average daily stock trading volume for the week was 28,519.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 65.07% [17][20]. Non-Bank Sector News and Key Announcements - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a reward program for whistleblowers in securities and futures violations, with potential rewards up to 1 million yuan for significant cases [21]. - Ping An Life increased its stake in China Merchants Bank H shares to 20.07%, crossing the threshold for mandatory disclosure [22]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on firms with strong competitive advantages, such as Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities. It also highlights firms with significant earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities and Dongfang Securities [4][9]. - In the insurance sector, the report recommends companies like China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, anticipating improved performance due to favorable market conditions [4][9].