国产铝土矿价格下行，氧化铝供给变动不大

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of domestic bauxite has declined, while the supply of alumina has changed little. The alumina market is in an oversupply cycle, with prices expected to transition to a bottom - oscillating phase [1][2][15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Last week, the price of domestic bauxite dropped significantly. The delivered - tax price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi decreased to 665 yuan/ton, a reduction of 33 yuan/ton. The import price of 45/3 grade bauxite from Guinea was 65.5 dollars/dry ton. Shunda Mining plans to ship 15 vessels in January and produce 25 - 30 million tons this year. Sinohydro plans to produce 15 million tons this year. During the period, 3.324 million tons of new ore arrived, including 2.242 million tons from Guinea and 1.081 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China is 21 dollars/ton [2][12] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was 2600 - 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2661.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.8 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 2700 - 2740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. There were 6 public alumina transactions overseas this week, totaling 180,000 tons, and 3 vessels will be shipped to China later. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2657 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 57 yuan/ton. The national alumina supply was relatively stable, with a built - in capacity of 114.62 million tons, an operating capacity of 95.85 million tons (an increase of 150,000 tons compared to before the festival), and an operating rate of 83.6%. In terms of demand, the new capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomeihongjun Zhalv is being gradually put into production, and the overall operating capacity of the enterprise has increased to 870,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.413 million tons, a weekly increase of 5,000 tons. There is no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 29.781 million tons, unchanged from last week [3][13] - Inventory: As of Thursday (January 8th), the national alumina inventory was 4.935 million tons, an increase of 84,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory increase of electrolytic aluminum enterprises slowed down. The inventory of alumina enterprises continued to increase slightly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/delivery warehouses also increased [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 159,642 tons, an increase of 1,824 tons compared to last week. The alumina futures price oscillated. The alumina industry remains in an oversupply situation, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, the price previously over - declined. With the introduction of policy expectations, the price rebounded from the bottom, but the industry is still in an oversupply cycle, and the market is expected to transition to a bottom - oscillating phase [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - Northern Import Loss: As of Friday (January 9th), the price of Australian alumina was about 310 dollars/ton, a 3 - dollar increase compared to December 31st. The estimated cost of reaching northern Chinese ports was about 2736 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan increase compared to the previous period. The theoretical northern import loss was about 96 yuan/ton. However, due to the rise of the alumina futures market, some merchants turned to overseas to purchase delivery products to lock in profits [16] - Market Contradictions: The structural and liquidity contradictions in the alumina market are significantly deviated. Some aluminum plants with high inventories do not purchase on the spot market, and some normal - tendering aluminum plants have stopped tendering temporarily and are watching. Spot - purchasing aluminum plants follow the market or offer firm prices with significant discounts. In recent industrial transactions, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 2570 yuan/ton, with a discount of about 30 yuan/ton compared to the website quotation and a discount of about 165 yuan/ton compared to the 2602 contract [16] - Futures Rise and Spot Cooling: The alumina futures price continued to rise, but the spot market trading atmosphere cooled down compared to before the New Year's Day holiday. The market trading volume was less than 10,000 tons. Traders had previously sold a large amount of spot to futures - cash merchants, and the latter's purchasing volume was approaching the upper limit. Since December 26th, 2025, futures - cash merchants have purchased about 250,000 - 300,000 tons of spot, including about 40% of delivery products and 60% of non - standard products. Currently, futures - cash merchants mainly trade at the 2602 contract price, with quotes in Shandong at 20 yuan/ton lower than the 02 contract, in Henan at 50 yuan/ton higher than the 02 contract, and in Shanxi at 30 yuan/ton higher than the 02 contract [17] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - Raw Materials and Cost: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in each province [18][20][26] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It shows data on alumina spot prices in each province, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. It also provides a table of the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina from August 2025 to January 2026 [33][40][43] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The report includes data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic yards/platforms/in - transit, ports, and the total social inventory of alumina, as well as the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [46][50][55]